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by DANmode 212 days ago
Over a decade?

Also,

> customers that each represent over $100,000 in run-rate revenue—has grown nearly sevenfold in the past year.

isn’t unconvincing.

2 comments

Lets put that quote in its full context, because its designed to sound much more impressive than it actually is.

> Anthropic serves more than 300,000 business customers, and our number of large accounts—customers that each represent over $100,000 in run-rate revenue—has grown nearly sevenfold in the past year.

Let me deconstruct that:

> Anthropic serves more than 300,000 business customers

Hard fact. No qualification on spend or activity, are they on trails or fully paid with contracts and minimum spend

> and our number of large accounts—customers that each represent over $100,000 in run-rate revenue

run-rate revenue is an extrapolation. (https://www.fool.com/terms/r/run-rate/) That could be buisnesses that trail anthropic for a month, spend 24K and think "fuck thats expensive" and stops spending. average that over 2 months, then times by 12, boom 100k account.

> has grown nearly sevenfold in the past year.

no starting base....

Its unconvincing, because its smoke and mirrors. Give me the numbers of paying customers, over time with revenue. Then show the opex/capex.

How impulse-buy has business AI licensing got?

Is it really a surprise later, the cost?

Less impulse, more "oh we expected that we'd get more return".

We have a project at the moment thats all based around sharepoint. They have ingested many tens of thousands of documents, and are expecting that MS copilot studio will be able to a) RAG and B) produce meaningful answers with a 4 line prompt.

Does it take more than a quarter or two to figure that out?
Thats my point right? you get monthly billing, look at the curve and go "oops thats not good"

And then cut spending. The point is, run-rate revenue, which is extrapolated rather than _actual_ can easily mask this change, depending on how its calculated.

I’m following - run-rate is definitely the buried lede here.

Thanks!

None of this infra is worth anything more than five years from now.
How do you think computing companies work?

They buy hardware, replace it as the years go on, and continue doing business.

The investment isn't just in raw compute - they have to build buildings, pay staff, and other things. For the hardware and software - they just keep pace as all the other computing companies have to.