[don_neufeld]

Not sure if it’s evident in broader statistics yet, but I think that because Tesla got the early adopter market (tech savvy people), they are now losing that same market first.

I had a party at my house a couple months ago, mostly SF tech people. I found the Tesla owners chatting together, and the topic was how much FSD sucks and they don’t trust it.

I asked and no-one said they would buy a Tesla again. Distrust because they felt suckered by FSD was a reason, but several also just said Elon’s behavior was a big negative.

[bastawhiz]

I own six EVs (three cars, one of which is a Tesla, and three motorcycles). My first EV was my Tesla.

We're on the cusp of trading the Tesla in for a Rivian most likely. I should be Tesla's target customer, but instead I'm exactly who you described:

- I don't like the brand. I don't like Elon. I don't like the reputation that the car attaches to me.

- I don't trust the technology. I've gotten two FSD trials, both scared the shit out of me, and I'll never try it again.

- I don't see any compelling developments with Tesla that make me want to buy another. Almost nothing has changed or gotten better in any way that affects me in the last four years.

They should be panicking. The Cybertruck could have been cool, but they managed to turn it into an embarrassment. There are so many alternatives now that are really quite good, and Tesla has spent the last half a decade diddling around with nonsense like the robot and the semi and the Cybertruck and the vaporware roadster instead of making cars for real people that love cars.

[rsynnott]

The astonishing thing is that they haven't released a new car in six years and _do not appear to have one in the works_ (unless you count the Model Y facelift, but really that's pushing it). I think that's pretty much unheard of for an active car manufacturer over the last few decades.

Like, what are they _doing_? Do they still have R&D at all?

[don_neufeld]

The execution on the roadster baffles me.

IIRC the deposit was 250K, and I know people who signed up on the first day. Can you imagine a more dedicated fan?

How do you not deliver to that group? How big an own-goal is that?

[tim333]

The other thing is various other companies built pretty much what Tesla was promising like the Rimac Nevera and the Yangwany U9, showing it was quite doable if Tesla had put some enthusiastic engineers on it and said go do it?

[nofriend]

50k. point definitely remains

[don_neufeld]

I believe the Founders series was 250K deposit.

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/202x-roadster-delay-...

[dzhiurgis]

Their ~mission was cheap cars for masses. There are plenty of high end EVs out there. It's nuts when smart people compare 7 year old 35k Tesla to a brand new 80k Polestar or 100k Lucid.

[dzhiurgis]

> instead of making cars for real people that love cars.

Whoosh. They've been saying Tesla is an AI company for nearly a decade. AI has been propping up entire US economy for last few years. EV bandwagon has left long time ago.

Saying all that I wouldn't mind even cheaper Tesla - small screen, 1 camera instead of 11, fully offline, fully stainless steel, fully open source - basically minimally tech and maximally maintainable and maximum longevity.

[bastawhiz]

They make cars that mostly do their job. They don't make AI that does its job. They're not an AI company, they're a car company pretending they're not a car company.

[seanmcdirmid]

> Saying all that I wouldn't mind even cheaper Tesla - small screen, 1 camera instead of 11, fully offline, fully stainless steel, fully open source - basically minimally tech and maximally maintainable and maximum longevity.

What you describe would probably cost more money, not less. The market is small and analog tech is actually more expensive to produce with than digital tech.

[dzhiurgis]

I said nothing about analog.

[seanmcdirmid]

> I said nothing about analog.

But:

> basically minimally tech and maximally maintainable and maximum longevity.

Kind of implies it.

Tech is used to lower prices, not raise them, if you want minimize tech, and you want to make it as maintainable by end user or relatively cheap mechanics, and you want it to last as long as possible, that is going to cost a lot. Or you basically want a Lada Laika, the old ones, that could be repaired super easily. Anything with microchips is going to suffer if those chips die, and they aren't going to be easy to repair.

[dzhiurgis]

> Anything with microchips is going to suffer if those chips die, and they aren't going to be easy to repair.

AFAIK Tesla is already moving towards that direction with unboxed manufacturing - it's where same chip can be either window controller or brake controller. Having single chip + open source firmware would eliminate this issue.

[georgemcbay]

> They should be panicking.

I'm sure they would be if the stock price had ever showed any signs of being based in reality.

But for now Elon can keep having SpaceX and xAI buy up all the unsold Teslas to make number go up.

If that ever stops working, just spin up a new company with a hyper-inflated valuation and have it acquire Tesla at some made up number. Worked for him once, why not try it again.

And at this point he can get even fraudier, with the worst possible realistic outcome being that he might get forced to pay a relatively small bribe and publicly humiliate himself for Trump a bit.

But there's really no more consequences to any sort of business fraud (for now) as long as you can afford the tribute.

#WorldLibertyFinancial

[pmarreck]

The fact that Elon has blown the San Franistan EV market should surprise absolutely no one.

[redserk]

I partially agree. FSD seems fine to me but I wouldn’t buy a second Tesla. Tesla seems to have stopped caring about being a car company that caters to nerds/tech enthusiasts.

Mine has been an extremely well done vehicle and I was (and kind of am) bullish on FSD as a driver assistance technology, but a car is a 6-7 year investment for me and I have big doubts about their direction. They seem to have abandoned the idea of being a car company, instead chasing this robotaxi idea.

Up until 2023/2024 was fine for my 6-7 year car lifecycle. Tesla was really cool when they let you do all sorts of backwards-compatible upgrades, but they seemed to have abandoned that.

I’ve found it incredibly disappointing seeing their flailing direction now.

Rivian seems to still have a lot of the magic that Tesla had. They’re definitely a strong contender for my next vehicle in a year or two.

[don_neufeld]

Rivian is definitely up and coming. The increase of them around my neighborhood has been very noticeable over the past 12 months.