[chrisBob]

My solar install is scheduled for December. Even if it ends up missing the cutoff for a tax break I still think it’s the right thing to do. The combination of investing in green energy and locking in my effective electric rate is the smart move right now.

… and I heard on Friday that OpenAI is planning a data center 15 miles south of me. That can only make things worse.

[nonethewiser]

Whats the time to make your money back with and without the tax break?

[SteveGerencser]

We cancelled our install after TN removed the state level breaks. It pushed the payback out past the expected lifespan of the panels (25 years). I would have been fine with a 10 year payback, but 25+ was just not worth doing.

[malshe]

Is this because of the labor costs in the US? In other countries the payback period is much shorter. Someone I know in Brazil told me it is 3-5 years for them.

On a related note, I asked my AC guy if he knows any trustworthy solar installers. He told me that only crooks are in that business :)

[phil21]

> On a related note, I asked my AC guy if he knows any trustworthy solar installers. He told me that only crooks are in that business

It's basically this.

There is very little robust competition in the solar installation market, and a lot of the market is a principle agent problem on top of it.

Almost all these solar installation firms targeted at residential are more or less financial engineering companies selling loans wrapped up with solar as an afterthought. They make all their money on the financing end.

I started to look into getting a highly customized solar+backup power setup done at my place, and I just gave up due to how difficult it was to find anyone to throw any amount of money at even when I never hoped to see a payback on the project. I just wanted it to ride out potential power outages.

If you can DIY you can get payback in under 5 years for many locations. But it's just a lot to learn to do perfectly the first time.

[malshe]

> Almost all these solar installation firms targeted at residential are more or less financial engineering companies selling loans wrapped up with solar as an afterthought. They make all their money on the financing end.

I agree. It's like car dealerships who are more interested in getting you on financing.

[sethhochberg]

In the US, there's often a large labor/materials upcharge on anything that can be branded as "green" - you see a lot of the same thing with higher end heat pump systems and such, too. Efficiency is (for whatever reasons) frequently sold as a luxury product feature in our market and the installers take advantage.

[mhb]

Or other countries could be paying more for electricity?

[malshe]

Yes it could be. But I checked the electricity price in Brazil and at $0.16 per kWh it is almost the same as what we pay in Texas.

https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/Brazil/electricity_prices...

[TuringNYC]

>> I would have been fine with a 10 year payback, but 25+ was just not worth doing.

We are struggling with this also -- with or without an incentive. The payback period is long. Makes sense if you think forward rates will be super-high. But people are quite aggressive with their forward rate estimates, yet super-liberal with the lifespan estimates.

I've dealt with enough appliance breakdowns to know all the tricks companies pull

- You have a 25 year warranty, but only on parts. The labor ends up costing more than an entire new system.

- You have a 25 year warranty, but only on labor. The parts ends up costing more than an entire new system, possibly because the parts are no longer made. Labor warranty is now useless and you need to buy a new system all over.

- You have a 25 year warranty on parts and labor, but the company declares bankruptcy and you have no warranty any longer.

- You have a 25 year warranty on parts and labor, but the company got acquired and the acquiring company "cant find your warranty details in their system". Regulators are powerless to actually help despite months of letters.

- You have a 25 year warranty on parts and labor, but a tree/hail falls on the house and they declare it out of bounds of warranty. You go through your home insurance, but they only cover current value, not replacement value. You buy a whole new system, only partially covered and start all over again.

- You have a 25 year warranty on parts and labor, but manufacturer blames the malfunction on improper installation, but the installation company is long-gone/retired/non-responsive/bankrupt. Possibly the Accord insurance form is fake also (how many people actually verify the insurance Accord is real?)

Been there, done that, on all the above. Eventually, your only religion is deferred maintenance because you know you get ripped off royally no matter what you do. We havent yet heard horror stories because these systems are new, but you'll hear all the above as time goes on, and people realize the actual life of their systems are far shorter than their payback periods.

[0xbadcafebee]

Most good solar panels have a 12-15 year warranty on the panel, and a 25-30 year warranty on performance.

But this is a warranty, and you have many panels. If they're all going to fail, they will fail sooner. If one fails or breaks eventually, even if it's not under warranty, replacing the panel is dirt cheap. Of course you need to replace it with an identical panel, so it makes more sense to buy extra panels and just assume some will die. But even if you paid for a replacement, that's already just $100-$200, and it'll probably be cheaper in the future.

So the warranty isn't really that important long-term. They're more important for the short term, and a Tier 1 solar provider's so reliable that you don't really need it anyway.

[trollbridge]

The cost to replace a panel is not “dirt cheap” and requires significant skill.

I could say that “rebuilding a car engine is dirt cheap” assuming I can do it myself.

[0xbadcafebee]

Skill? If you can use a screwdriver, and lift 50lbs, you can do it.

1) Throw the "DC Disconnect" switch to de-power the panels. 2) Unscrew old panel from rails. 3) Disconnect MC4 connectors (with fingers). 4) Remove old panel and install new panel. 5) Connect MC4 connectors. 6) Screw panel into rails. 8) Throw "DC Disconnect" lever to re-power panels.

There's also a step 7 where the panel needs to be connected to the ground of the other panels, but with modern systems there's these metal clips that just clip onto the edges of adjacent panels to make the ground. Your system may be different but the ground is a pretty simple connection of metal to metal.

Here's a YouTube short showing it: https://youtube.com/shorts/fpyXHsZCb6M?si=JHoYfff2yz3ZsA9P

[SoftTalker]

Yeah I just have absolutely zero interest in owning, being responsible for, and avoiding scammers in my own electrical power generation, with some vague hope of breaking even decades later. I'll gladly pay a utility for reliable power, regardless of wind and cloud conditions, where they are responsible for all the infrastructure upstream of my meter.

[trollbridge]

Right. I do a lot of self sufficient things (including some of my own power generation) but I lack the desire to become my own power utility end to end. It’s already frustrating enough since I provide water and sewage to multiple households and electrical connection to the utility with solar and generator backup.

[dmoy]

I think GP's point isn't necessary "with vs without tax break", it's "with vs without giant future increase in electricity price"

[casey2]

You'd probably be cutting it close with the life of the panel (though maybe electricity price increase will save you) For CO2 I think it pays itself off fairly quick. It's probably the best investment you could make from a CO2 and local air quality perspective, maybe if your insulation is very bad or switching to a bike from a large personal car

[edm0nd]

you'll basically never make it back iirc

by the time you may even get close to paying it off, its time for a new one.

really only worth if you just want to have solar and got a spare 5-6 figures to drop on it and wont miss that money.

hopefully this changes in the near future and it will be way more affordable.

[testing22321]

What planet are you on?

I’m in Canada, in a tight valley that snows a lot.

7.8kw on the roof, even if I paid full price out of pocket it would be fully paid off in 13 years, and then I get $1000 a year of free power for another 20 or so years.

Even at full price it’s a total no brainer.