[ReptileMan]

>War with Russia is a real possibility

No it is not because of 3 reasons:

1. Russia has no resources to wage war on NATO 2. Russia has no resources to wage war on NATO 3. Russia has no resources to wage war on NATO

War with russia is mostly hawks' and chicken littles' of the media wet dreams.

[flohofwoe]

If anything has become clear in the last couple of years is that Russia doesn't act rationally, and their government lies as soon as they open their mouths. E.g trying to explain Russia's actions with 'reason' is just a waste of time.

Also: "if you want peace, prepare for war" has never been more true than now, as sad as that is.

[myrmidon]

I honestly don't think the Ukraine invasion was that irrational.

Russia had previous success (with managable pushback) annexing Crimea (and the Chechen wars before).

Things just went south really hard this time and now they're kinda stuck, just like France/Germany in WW1 or the US in Vietnam and Afghanistan.

Writing off a lost war effort is also much harder for a totalitarian regime, because you are not gambling with your re-election: It's literally your life on the line, or your whole career at the very least (kleptocrat network & favors), so doubling down is kinda the most rational approach from the decision-makers PoV.

[mrguyorama]

The Ukraine War became irrational the day after it started.

The entire war was planned as "It will be over in 3 days, we will accomplish all our objectives trivially, it will be a massive gain". There was never even an idea in the Kremlin that it would be anything other than a milk run, no contingency plan for if Ukraine fought back at all.

Russia did not even take control over hundreds of billions of dollars of cash reserves in foreign banks that they expected to be part of their war chest, and which were frozen early on.

Then they failed to take Hostomel airport, failed to be welcomed by the population, and their invasion column was an abysmal, laughable even, execution on whatever plan they had.

From that moment on, there was no "Success" option. It's geopolitical sunk cost fallacy.

Russia did not plan on losing over 4000 tanks! Russia did not plan on throwing away most of their Soviet inheritance and outright emptying all the storage yards for old tanks! They did not plan on causing the outright or near extinction of several entire types of Soviet military vehicle! They have lost 8000 IFVs! They definitely did not plan or want to lose several irreplaceable strategic aircraft, including multiple EWACS type aircraft that they didn't have a lot of in the first place, and again, irreplaceable.

Russia did not plan to have 30% of their fuel refining infrastructure damaged by a neighbor without a serious air force! Russia did not plan to have an attempted coup that was well on its way to Moscow. Russia did not plan on having most of its industry hampered by foreign export controls and limits.

Russia most certainly did not plan on having to beg and trade North Korea for a few million artillery shells, and they did not plan on having the Flagship of the Black Sea fleet sunk by a country who scuttled their navy months earlier!

If Ukraine rolled over and willingly submitted to total control today, including the actual populace (instead of resisting), Russia would still be utterly fucked for decades to come.

[flohofwoe]

I mean yeah... in a sense it's also not quite irrational for Russia to attack a NATO country (like one of the Baltics) if Russia is convinced that the rest of NATO (or at least the US) isn't coming to help. It would still be an incredibly stupid thing to do.

[karpik]

Hey, I find you from another topic (about speed of js/rust calls, im really curious about best effective way of wasm 3d app with additional raycasting, etc)

However I couldnt ignore this topic since im from Voronezh, Russia. Totally agree about government’s lies and impulsiveness, however:

- when they say “X is what totally not gonna happen” actually they introduce X event to the news so 99.99% it is gonna happen later

- impulsiveness huge, they got a lot of people in jail for labeling “svo” as “war” and in last months all the government refers to the conflict as to “the war”. However(!) they kinda translate will of the nation, some basic russians, trying to create narrative that will make average russian proud and happy and from the other side praying for any luck in war (actually they need not luck but supply chains, that ones are corrupted as hell, and that shit going for three centuries at least, nothing new)

So, about prep to a war I’m afraid you’re right, I don’t think it’s reasonable to stay at Russia at all for now at least for 6 years. Also it’s risky to stay in Poland and Finland. For Baltics not that risky but really depressing though. h o w e v e r

- russia had a deal for nato not to get close to its borders, that was violated in a really bad manner, the neighbor just stopped all communication from 2020 and at beginning 2022 declared cancellation of other deal of not to place any atom weapon nearby.

- USSR, and Russia asked to get in NATO a few times and got pretty rude responses “no way”. So there is nothing else this country can do if it doesn’t want to give up. The reasoning is pretty clear and emotional, stand for national security, do not became another India for UK. But the whole thing is messy, and smells like a slavs genocide. Russia became isolated, people are really angry and tolerable to constant violence threats, that is just insane turnaround since 2018 world cup that was hosted in Moscow.

[flohofwoe]

> russia had a deal for nato not to get close to its borders

This deal doesn't exist, at least anywhere on paper. There is an obligation related to the reunification of Germany that no NATO troops are stationed on the territory of former East Germany which has been honored by the reunited Germany.

Countries are also not forced into NATO, they ask to join.

> USSR, and Russia asked to get in NATO a few times and got pretty rude responses “no way”.

As far as I have read, Russia wanted to 'skip the queue' ahead of smaller countries. When this special treatment was denied, Russia suddenly didn't want to join anymore.

[karpik]

about NATO expansion you’re right, never thought there is no public document, the only thing I found (looks not legit at all but it’s clear what’s government propaganda have in mind https://rg.ru/amp/2022/02/18/der-spiegel-obnaruzhen-dokument... )

Just before Ukraine invasion Zelensky speak up about cancelling Budapest memorandum https://amp.rbc.ru/rbcnews/politics/19/02/2022/621108ac9a794... That’s not a first time Ukraine presidents discuss this, but that timing was tough.

About Russia - NATO membership: western media hold narrative “in 1990s Russia was close – in 2007 Putin declared independent way of using energy and army resources”, but I find this 2001 Bush reaction humiliating (reasons unknown, pure subjective observation) https://youtu.be/x7kkRkWbIzI?si=LBhci7V_qdWDBDT9

Putin says he saw some secret KGB documents about the whole east-west situation when he became a president, idk if that’s legit at all.

I can only add up to the topic that in 90s almost all oil/gas in Russia was exported by western companies, and only in 2002 all sources became formerly owned by russian companies and citizens. As for now 20% Rosneft still held by BP Russian Investments Limited.

[dgroshev]

Russia is still by far the biggest country in Europe, with tons of natural resources and support from the biggest industrial manufacturer on the planet. It has an industry that is now fully oriented to produce military goods in war-time quantities that it can't easily spin down.

Russia does have resources, it has the desire, and importantly the state it depends on (China) has a very strong motivation to have Nato distracted when it acts on its plans for Taiwan.

[ReptileMan]

Except you cannot involve in any way NATO in taiwan. Only the USA

[watwut]

That assumes NATO would fight Russia. USA can not be trusted anymore to keep their obligations.

[ReptileMan]

Who the fuck needs USA? EU has 4 times the population and infinity times the industrial capacity ...