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by cosmicgadget 257 days ago
Six years is a better bet, due to some legislature terms and the fact that a president will be in office for eight years unless they do something really stupid.

But considering the counterparties can be countries like South Korea, Italy, the Philippines, Argentina, and Brazil, it's not like disruption isn't already baked in.
1 comments
jedberg 257 days ago
>? the fact that a president will be in office for eight years unless they do something really stupid.

The last two terms (and this one assuming the law is actually followed) will all be 4 years.

Going back to the beginning, only 34% of the terms have been 8 years or more.

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cosmicgadget 257 days ago
Imho going back before Reagan isn't really relevant. In the modern era we have Reagan (8), Bush I (4 because he raised taxes), Clinton (8), Bush II (8), Obama (8), Trump (4 because he botched covid), Biden (4). Biden would probably have been re-elected were it not for the cognitive decline, so he didn't exactly do anything wrong enough to be a single-term president.
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jedberg 257 days ago
Don’t forget Trump-47 will be another four.

So of the last eight Presidents, 4 were one term. That’s still 50%

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