[ivell]

The leadership of countries under sanctions rarely change their behavior due to sanctions. However the effect on the population of the countries is that they turn against the countries applying the sanctions. It becomes easier for the leaders to sell the sanctions to their populace as the enemy action. If the West is expecting any revolution due to sanctions, I have not seen it.

However, sanctions do have a symbolic value. And I also can't think of anything else short of military action to express displeasure.

[Seattle3503]

Sanctions diminish a counties capacity to wage war.

[sjapkee]

No. Countries just will take money from their people. It diminishes people capacity to survive.

[542354234235]

Both are true. Less access to materials, components, IP, and skilled labor all diminish a country's war fighting ability. There aren't unlimited funds you can take from citizens, and money you do take has effects on your labor force and talent pool.

[myrmidon]

Can't wage war effectively if you're starving.

[lazide]

Cite? Russia and Iran seem to not be giving too much of a shit. NK became a nuclear power under sanctions.

[kelnos]

Would Russia perhaps have already conquered Ukraine without sanctions? Would Iran have destroyed Israel by now without sanctions? Would NK have become a nuclear power much earlier, and have a huge stockpile of nuclear weapons today, were it not for sanctions?

I don't know the answers to those questions, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was "yes".

[johnisgood]

> Iran is not the only example in which sanctions have resulted in unintended consequences. Since 1970, unilateral sanctions imposed by the U.S. have achieved foreign policy goals in just about 13% of cases, according to one study. A recent Congressional Research report evaluating U.S. sanctions in Venezuela found that sanctions “exacerbated an ongoing economic and humanitarian crisis caused by government mismanagement and corruption that has promoted 7.7 million Venezuelans to flee.” U.S. sanctions also exacerbated humanitarian crises in North Korea, reported UNICEF, putting 60,000 vulnerable children at risk of starvation due to limited humanitarian aid.

https://washingtondc.jhu.edu/news/do-sanctions-actually-work...

[lazide]

Russia lost (in a real sense), when their blitzkrieg of Kiev failed. From that point on, it’s just how much they turn the crank on the meat grinder that is trench warfare. It’s the nature of the bet that is inherent in Blitzkrieg. Ukraine/Russia is about who is going to lose more after that, not who can win. No one can win anymore.

Sanctions or lack thereof definitely impacts quality of life, but Putin put everything on a war economy footing pretty quickly anyway, and in that environment (especially in Russia), it’s suffering all the way down. And Russia excels at Suffering. Russia has oil too, and plenty of minerals, so if anything I expect by now they’re just getting stronger (economically), barring Ukraine wrecking their shit from time to time with a well placed drone strike.

Iran/Israel is an interesting question, but near as I can tell, Iran doesn’t really want to destroy Israel. They just want to make them as miserable as possible, and show they can ‘do harm’ to them when they need to prop up domestic support among the hardliners.

Israel provides a good scapegoat for the Iranian leadership.

With Israel gone, who is the Ayatollah going to use as the big bad? The Great Satan (USA) isn’t as tractable a target when they don’t have a designated ‘local’ they can go after, and if Iran actually meaningfully hurt the US (nuked the White House?), Iran is glass regardless of how otherwise strong they are.

NK got sanctions because they love playing the crazy-dude-with-a-gun-that-just-wants-a-handout, which is also why they eventually got nukes. They might have gotten nukes a little faster without sanctions, but sanctions definitely gave the hardliners huge leverage in the country. Hard to be friendly with the west (as a civilian!) when the west is literally openly starving the country, even if the leadership of your country is egging them on eh?

Near as I can tell, the USSR fell because of jeans and rock and roll. So yes, I think the ‘good guy’ sanctions BS is ultimately self defeating.

It can work if someone is either a) in a tenuous economic position, and b) the ‘sanctioningish’ behavior is not existential.

But any good authoritarian would rather throw their entire population under the bus ‘for the greater good’ than give in on something important for them…

And countries know how to deal with being at war (generally), even if it’s a weird only-semi-economic one.

[myrmidon]

I agree with a lot of what you say, but I think one aspect of sanctions that you are missing a bit is that they stifle growth (especially long-term) by forcing the victim to waste ressources on unwanted/inefficient industries or convoluted procurement.

Basically, you are hurting your own economy (non negligibly in the EU-Russia case for example!) to make sure that you outgrow the sanctioned opponent, making any future conflict more favorable for yourself.

There is a lot of evidence that this aspect works pretty well; even if you can sidestep the sanctions with middle-men or substitute local industry, this always comes with additional friction/costs (just consider German synth fuel industry during WW2-- that was an insane amount of ressources that could've gone into planes or tanks or somesuch instead).

For an example of sanctions directly effecting diplomatic outcomes, just consider Jordan over the Gulf wars: They stayed neutral during the first one (which Bush did NOT like), got sanctioned (without western citizens even noticing too much), suffered a lot from that, then during the second Iraq war they basically cooperated with the US (grudgingly!).

I think it is difficult to find many clear examples for this because sanctions typically mostly work as a threat, and being put in place is a kind of failure mode for them already.

[dh2022]

How can Russia be economically stronger under sanctions? Before the war they were able to manufacture some goods (Volkswagen had a couple of factories. I think Unilever was making some washers/ dryers). This is all replaced by manufacturing of some weapons (which proven themselves so shitty in the war that no outside buyers want to buy them).

Russia went from selling their oil on the world market at competitive prices to selling to mostly 2 customers at heavily discounted prices. And Russia is going to use barter now because of financial sanctions on Russian oil buyers.

All Russian currency reserves are frozen, and the interest these reserves generate are given to Ukraine to buy weapons.

How is Russia economically better now than before Feb 2022?

[lazide]

It depends entirely on what you mean by ‘strength’, and ‘better’. Russia is ramping up its military industrial complex like no one’s business, for instance.

Manufacturing in general, actually.

Something which had essentially collapsed previously. Also, mining and other resource extraction - they’re necessarily rebuilding domestic production and becoming more independent.

[542354234235]

Russia has had to sell oil at a steep discount, which has cut into their revenue significantly. Hundreds of billions of dollars have been frozen/seized that can't be used to fund the war effort. Modern war is not just "beans and bullets”, and Russia pays upwards of 10 times the price for key components it needs for missiles, aviation, UAVs, tanks, artillery, air defense, etc. as well as quality manufacturing equipment needed.

Russian industry is operating at only 81% capacity, largely due to labor shortages, which make sense considering that about 1% of its labor force join the military every other month. Russia is losing tank barrels, artillery barrels, and infantry fighting vehicles more than 10 times faster than it can manufacture new ones. It will likely never be able to obtain a third rotary forge, required for barrel manufacture, to expand its capacity. It has almost entirely cannibalized its old, defunct Soviet era stock. They are being kept afloat by China, NK, and Iran, but with a much-reduced capacity, and often much lower quality. For example, Russia relies on China for 70-80% of its microchips, but China is dumping defective microchips on them with a 40% failure rate.

Sanctions have absolutely had significant, direct, measurable impacts on Russia’s ability to wage war and sustain war.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/11/21/half-of-russias-ai... https://jamestown.org/program/russia-exhausts-soviet-era-arm... https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/what-where-are-russias-... https://archive.ph/c17pk https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/is-202... https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-sanctions-have-reshaped-ru... https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/comme... https://osintforukraine.com/publications/microchips https://www.theregister.com/2022/10/18/russia_china_semicond...

[lazide]

I’m not saying the sanctions haven’t hurt, rather that when the war was at its decisive point (the first few days) they did not exist/were immaterial. Now they’re just doing more damage in an already damaging (and unwinnable) situation.

[jimbohn]

The USSR fell because its economic model didn't work and was a society steered by corrupt principles. Jeans and rock and roll "envy" was just a symptom. After having seen the effect of communism/russianism on post-soviet countries I'd rather take a nuclear bomb, it's better in the long term. Sanctions work but it depends what you are min-maxing because obviously some sanctions may hurt your own country/block.

[victorbjorklund]

Russia have gas shortages right now because their plants keep getting blown up and the needed spare parts are often western.

[athrowaway3z]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Ac...

[mynegation]

Main reason being that there are large and powerful countries that do not give a damn about sanctions.

[1234letshaveatw]

Name one

[lazide]

China?

Russia?

[lelanthran]

> The leadership of countries under sanctions rarely change their behavior due to sanctions. However the effect on the population of the countries is that they turn against the countries applying the sanctions. It becomes easier for the leaders to sell the sanctions to their populace as the enemy action.

Counterpoint: South Africa.

> If the West is expecting any revolution due to sanctions, I have not seen it.

You have now.

[zdragnar]

Isn't South Africa the exception? There have been sanctions on many more countries who have not changed at all, or even doubled down on bad behavior as a result.

I can certainly understand, as a matter of foreign policy, not wanting our companies to be propping up or supplying such regimes, but I don't really get how anyone can think that sanctions are effective at promoting change.

[dash2]

On the whole, I’m inclined to agree, but didn’t South Africa eventually end apartheid because of sanctions?

[pessimizer]

Sanctions from individuals. The US did the opposite, and supported South Africa no matter what. Just like Israel - In both ways. Israel supported South Africa, and the US supported Israel. The dramatic sanctions against US citizens for refusing to buy from Israel and endorsing that people not buy from Israel are meant to prevent such a horrible thing as the fall of Apartheid from ever happening again.

[dash2]

This comment is mistaken. Many countries, including Japan from 1964, and eventually the US and UK, sanctioned SA officially. I doubt whether any boycott from individual US citizens had a serious economic effect compared to this.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_sanctions_during...

[FrozenSynapse]

You think sanctions on Russia are not working?

[tom910]

As an russians who moved abroad I think sanctions positively affect Puttin so far. Because, he got a lot what he wanted but couldn't get without sanctions: - russian companies replaced majority of international companies. Many of IT companies growed 20-40% year by year - sanctions locked money inside of the country which help to build new everything - sanctions made boost of internal culture and patriotism. Which also increased popularity of government and reduced any alternative options.

And many more similar examples. Sanctions will hurt Russia in long term but not now. Because good sanctions requires to understand the country culture + execute only that hurt countries, which didn't do western countries.

[int_19h]

Sanctions also helped them sell the "all the bad guys are ganging up on us, so we need tough measures" schtick.

[Xelbair]

Honestly, their effect is diminished. After speaking with Russians living in there, day to day life hasn't been affected that much, after initial shock.

Trying to use sanctions against another major power isn't guaranteed to work as they can take the hit and pivot to internal industry(which happened), or trading with other major powers that do not sanction them(China).

Or some countries get around sanctions - like buying Russian gas/petroleum products through India - in a way this bypasses sanctions making them worthless.

Is it better than doing nothing? yes, of course. But Russia unfortunately is a major power - just due to sheer access to natural resources - and you can't just bully it into submission with weak sanctions that some EU countries ignore(petroleum case).

[kelnos]

> After speaking with Russians living in there, day to day life hasn't been affected that much, after initial shock.

That sounds like a positive, though: if Russia's advance into Ukraine has been slowed by sanctions, but everyday Russians aren't affected too much, I'd consider that a huge win. We shouldn't be punishing regular people for the actions of a their dictatorship government that they can't control.

[johnisgood]

Problem is that ever since the sanctions from EU, our prices of EVERYTHING has increased by 3-6x. We are in an economic crisis, thanks to EU's sanctions.

[ajuc]

Russia has had billions in oil money banked. It's mostly gone now.

It's working all right. These things take decades. Look at North Korea (first few years they grew faster than South Korea, and they had the more wealthy parts). Now their GDP per capita is around 600-1700 USD vs 33 000 USD in South Korea.

[542354234235]

Russia has had to sell oil at a steep discount, which has cut into their revenue significantly. Hundreds of billions of dollars have been frozen/seized that can't be used to fund the war effort. Modern war is not just "beans and bullets”, and Russia pays upwards of 10 times the price for key components it needs for missiles, aviation, UAVs, tanks, artillery, air defense, etc. as well as quality manufacturing equipment needed.

Russian industry is operating at only 81% capacity, largely due to labor shortages, which make sense considering that about 1% of its labor force join the military every other month. Russia is losing tank barrels, artillery barrels, and infantry fighting vehicles more than 10 times faster than it can manufacture new ones. It will likely never be able to obtain a third rotary forge, required for barrel manufacture, to expand its capacity. It has almost entirely cannibalized its old, defunct Soviet era stock. They are being kept afloat by China, NK, and Iran, but with a much-reduced capacity, and often much lower quality. For example, Russia relies on China for 70-80% of its microchips, but China is dumping defective microchips on them with a 40% failure rate.

Sanctions have absolutely had significant, direct, measurable impacts on Russia’s ability to wage war and sustain war. As for regular people, it is hard to think it hasn't affected then, given that last year inflation was 9%, interest rates are 21%, and disposable income is down 20-30%. That feels like a lot of belt tightening.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/11/21/half-of-russias-ai... https://jamestown.org/program/russia-exhausts-soviet-era-arm... https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/what-where-are-russias-... https://archive.ph/c17pk https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/is-202... https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-sanctions-have-reshaped-ru... https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/comme... https://osintforukraine.com/publications/microchips https://www.theregister.com/2022/10/18/russia_china_semicond... https://www.economicsobservatory.com/what-is-the-current-sta...

[ptero]

> After speaking with Russians living in there, day to day life hasn't been affected that much

Did you speak with folks from Moscow or St Petersburg or from different regions? Life in the top 2 cities is kept as normal as possible at all costs; that is part of the Putin's approach to handling the elites (you can keep living your comfortable lives as long as you stay out of politics).

But elsewhere the quality of life took a big hit. Even in second tier cities. At least that is what I am hearing. My 2c.

[int_19h]

I have friends and relatives living in various regions in central and south Russia, and most of them don't feel like their quality of life took a big hit. The main frustrations that I hear are from drone attacks and associated inconveniences, not so much anything economic.

Anecdotally I have also heard that many factory towns are booming because the factories are re-opened or expanded to fulfill all those military orders.

[Xelbair]

different regions, outside of Moscow. basically a second tier city.