[myahio]

What could potentially put an end to the current hiring "winter"?

We have an increasing amount of immigrants coming over in hopes of getting a white-collar job, in combination with the tech sector shrinking, as well as companies as a whole being much more careful when hiring.

There would need to be some explosion in the amount of tech jobs, in order for everyone to be able to get one. However, I just cannot see what could cause something like this in the near future.

[zeroonetwothree]

This is just recency bias. People often tend to think that present trends will continue indefinitely even though past trends did not.

[yobbo]

What does the moment look like when one trend ends?

ZIRP is one example of a decade-long trend that is ending.

[arccy]

zirp ended a while ago when all the big layoffs happened and we're slowly seeing news of rates going down again.

[crummy]

Presumably the end of such a winter would involve the tech sector growing.

According to wikipedia[0] there doesn't seem to be any significant uptick in H1Bs. Is that what you were referring to by "immigrants coming over in hopes of getting a white-collar job"?

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H-1B_visa#H-1B_visa_tables_and...

[myahio]

I'm not American so I'm not specifically referring to the H1B system

[NamlchakKhandro]

In Australia, it refers to

https://www.education.gov.au/international-education-engagem...

So basically Australia wants to force the cost of employing workers down.

[kevin_thibedeau]

> What could potentially put an end to the current hiring "winter"?

April 18, 2017; EO 13788: Buy American and Hire American (H-1B reform)

Still waiting on that one. Just need a favorable administration back in office.

[myahio]

I'm not American but I do find it quite annoying how majority of the economic trends present within the US, are subsequently reflected in Europe with a slight delay.

I think that a slight increase in autonomy of other western countries could go a long way

[jahlove]

You didn't have to wait long, eh?

https://www.npr.org/2025/09/20/nx-s1-5548568/h1b-visa-fee-tr...

[ozozozd]

Your statements contradict each other.

If companies are much more careful when hiring, they would not consider immigrants unless the candidate is exceptional, which doesn’t significantly change the number of opportunities for an average worker.

Contrary to the conspiracy theories, H1B requires the employer to pay market wage or higher, so hiring an immigrant for a white collar job is extra cost and risk, and only makes sense in a low-interest rate environment where finding a qualified candidate becomes a challenge.

The exceptional and even qualified immigrants that would take these jobs are coming at a significantly lower rate since Trump 1.0. And that includes international students that would eventually become exceptional/qualified candidates.

The 50 year old commenter has pointed out the root cause and showed examples of the cycle to explain when the jobs will come back.

[9rx]

> Contrary to the conspiracy theories, H1B requires the employer to pay market wage or higher [...] where finding a qualified candidate becomes a challenge.

Something doesn't add up here. If you are paying the market wage, you fundamentally cannot have challenges finding qualified candidates. The market wage isn't established until you already have someone agreeing to your terms...

H1B is built around the concept of past market wages. This is why the 'conspiracy theories' state that H1B drive down wages. Not because the H1B workers are paid less than other workers, but because they are paid the same.

Consider the scenario where yesterday it took $20 per hour to find a willing worker. Your competitor hired that person. Said worker isn't going to come work for you for $20 per hour. He is already positioned with that. He would come work for you for $30 per hour, though. You could offer him $30 per hour, or you could cry and say that you can't find anyone and then hire an H1B for $20 per hour. Technically, in this scenario, the market wage became $30 per hour, but since the H1B was introduced you were able to bring it back down to $20 per hour.

Which isn't much of a conspiracy theory. That's just basic economics. The macro effects are considerably more complicated, of course. H1Bs are granted on the understanding that having two workers being paid $20 per hour is more net beneficial to society than one worker making $30 per hour. Including economically over the long term — where businesses that are able to expand with more workers will eventually be able to pay all workers more, although the "trickle down" crowd will dismiss that idea.

The so-called conspiracy theories disagree with that notion, believing, no doubt because they are thinking of it from an individualistic point of view rather than a worldly point of view, that they would be better off making $30 per hour instead.

[ozozozd]

You are right.

I was refuting the claims about H1B workers working for less.