[JumpCrisscross]

> you have to start somewhere

There has been no start. You don’t build a factory because the President announced a tariff that he is also negotiating a trade deal around.

> what is this reason?

I’m remodelling my deck. I had orders into a steel mill in Utah. Tariffs mean their steel inputs are pricer than competitors in Vietnam. So I switched the order. And I paid with a cheque—if I paid cash I could skip taxes altogether. That wasn’t a thing six months ago.

Meanwhile, software and services aren’t tariffed. Just goods. Guess whose cost of capital has sunk.

[reliabilityguy]

> There has been no start. You don’t build a factory because the President announced a tariff that he is also negotiating a trade deal around.

You absolutely do once the math of tariffs makes your manufacturing abroad not competitive with onshored one. Will it apply for all categories of products? Probably not. However, it will definitely apply for many.

I am not sure I understood your reply about the reasons.

[JumpCrisscross]

> absolutely do once the math of tariffs makes your manufacturing abroad not competitive with onshored one

If someone bet on e.g. our Japan tariffs three months ago, they lost money. (Nobody did. The types that take Trump at his word on tariffs aren’t making economically significant decisions.)

[reliabilityguy]

I do not know why anyone would bet that the executive order defined tariffs would stay. It was and still clear as a day that Trump uses them to force people to the negotiation table. Obviously, negotiated deal may look different.

Regardless, tariffs as an instrument have their merit with Trump or without Trump. Strategically, US has to bring manufacturing (and as much of a supply chains) back, there is no way around it.

[JumpCrisscross]

> do not know why anyone would bet that the executive order defined tariffs would stay

If nobody bets on the tariffs staying then manufacturing doesn’t come back. The restoring of manufacturing is the bet.

> US has to bring manufacturing (and as much of a supply chains) back

Sure. These tariffs don’t do that.

[reliabilityguy]

> Sure. These tariffs don’t do that.

How do you know? Are you from the future?

[JumpCrisscross]

> Are you from the future?

…we are currently in the future of the previous tariffs.

Also, come on, you’re yourself arguing these tariffs aren’t worth betting on. What do you think investing in a factory is?

[9rx]

> Strategically, US has to bring manufacturing (and as much of a supply chains) back, there is no way around it.

Strategically, it needed to keep manufacturing. It is too late now. Its labor and capital is already fully deployed towards innovation. Innovation that is now realizing that it is being stifled without a local manufacturing base, granted, but at this point pulling labor and capital away from innovation in order to build a manufacturing base again will only stifle it further as the rest of the world, which is quickly closing the innovation gap, keeps moving forward.

The US cannot afford to see that happen. So, in order to save face, what the tariffs will end up doing is open the doors for foreign capital and labor to flood into the US instead. While that will put factories in eye's view, it does not "bring back manufacturing" or resolve the strategic need. It merely lets what was strategically trying to be defended against inside the house, which is an even worse position.

[gambiting]

>>Regardless, tariffs as an instrument have their merit with Trump or without Trump. Strategically, US has to bring manufacturing (and as much of a supply chains) back, there is no way around it.

Well no. Not really. Not for everything anyway. Some things like electronics - sure, but it's a matter of national security not economy - it doesn't have to make financial sense, it just has to exist so that the country can have that ability no matter what happens.

As a simple(and really oversimplified) example - let's say that tariffs force clothes manufacturers to bring tshirt making back to the States. The $5 T-Shirt now costs $30 due to tarrifs. So ok, someone makes a factory in US because now it makes sense, employs american workers, pays them good wage - ok, now they make t-shirts cost $20 because they are made domestically.

Cool - that's great, but now the rest of the world still buys $5 tshirts, while Americans buy $20 ones that can't even be exported anywhere because why would anyone buy them if they have cheaper alternatives. All you've done is you increased the cost of your products to the american consumers.

Some can argue - ok, that doesn't matter, what matters is that manufacturing is now back in the states and american people have employment. And sure, there is merit to that argument - but it reminds me of how my own country used to work under communist rule, people would go "comrade party leader, people have no jobs", "ok, we'll build a factory here so you can have jobs".

Can the factory make anything that is actually worth making? Doesn't matter, what matters is that people got jobs and "manufacturing is happening here" - for an economy based on capitalist principles, that sounds like a disaster for US.

But hey, what do I know. Just an external observer.

[reliabilityguy]

> Well no. Not really. Not for everything anyway.

So, you and I are in agreement that for some things it makes sense, right? Both strategically, and economically.

[amanaplanacanal]

For some things, it might make sense. Across the board tarrifs like this current administration is doing them is just idiocy.

[sethammons]

Nearly every economist agrees with targeted and strategic tariffs.

Nearly every economist disagrees with blanket tariffs.

They think this for reasons. Historic ones. Logical ones. Modeled ones. Do some basic research. Talk to an AI. This is not advanced material.