[JumpCrisscross]

> do not know why anyone would bet that the executive order defined tariffs would stay

If nobody bets on the tariffs staying then manufacturing doesn’t come back. The restoring of manufacturing is the bet.

> US has to bring manufacturing (and as much of a supply chains) back

Sure. These tariffs don’t do that.

[reliabilityguy]

> Sure. These tariffs don’t do that.

How do you know? Are you from the future?

[JumpCrisscross]

> Are you from the future?

…we are currently in the future of the previous tariffs.

Also, come on, you’re yourself arguing these tariffs aren’t worth betting on. What do you think investing in a factory is?

[reliabilityguy]

> …we are currently in the future of the previous tariffs.

Which ones?

> Also, come on, you’re yourself arguing these tariffs aren’t worth betting on. What do you think investing in a factory is?

I can’t bet on negotiation tactic, only on the outcomes and formal agreements. As soon as those would be finalized we would know. Now we do not know how the trade policy would look like. I would assume that investment banker knows the difference.

[JumpCrisscross]

> Which ones?

Liberation Day.

> can’t bet on negotiation tactic, only on the outcomes and formal agreements

How about money actually invested [1][2].

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/C307RX1Q020SBEA

[2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/C307RX1Q020SBEA

[reliabilityguy]

> Liberation Day.

From four months ago?

[sjsdaiuasgdia]

I can't tell which of these you meant -

"From four months ago? That's way too short a time for any tariff impacts to show up."

vs

"From four months ago? That's ancient history, it doesn't matter."

If it's the first, the link the other person provided shows a dip in manufacturing facility investment over the last 2 quarters. Maybe there will come a future point of stability where investors can feel confident, maybe not. Trump seems willing to use tariffs as a weapon for any disagreement with other countries, not just trade imbalances. There's little guarantee any trade agreement will be honored by the administration.

If it's the second, well, that's the problem. The tariff landscape has been in constant flux over the last several months [0,1,2]. You don't build a factory overnight. You want to understand what your supply chains and costs look like and have some confidence in what they'll look like by the time the factory is ready to start producing. There remains little guarantee that the landscape won't continue to change, and Trump's weaponizing of tariffs is part of that.

[0] https://e3.365dm.com/25/04/1600x900/skynews-trump-tariffs_68...

[1] https://news.ucr.edu/sites/default/files/styles/scale_825/pu...

[2] https://www.crugroup.com/globalassets/campaigns/commodity-ma...

[JumpCrisscross]

> From four months ago?

That is when that was.

Also the ones from six months ago.