[Cthulhu_]

I think this is the reality behind the past relative world peace; international dependencies. Russia got away with a lot of shit because most of Europe thrived on their cheap gas and oil. Many countries are in debt with each other or have valuable assets (gold, nukes) stashed with each other.

[kennyadam]

It was a stated goal of the EU - peace through trade.

[FirmwareBurner]

How did that work out?

[adastra22]

There used to be open war between European countries every 30 years or so. That hasn’t happened. So mission accomplished?

And before anyone says it’s because of nukes or superpower protection or whatever, there has been plenty of wars on the periphery of the EU during this time. The balkans, Cyprus, Egypt, etc.

[FirmwareBurner]

>There used to be open war between European countries every 30 years or so. That hasn’t happened.

I meant how did that ensure peace between Ukraine, Russia and EU? It clearly didn't even though EU was buying shit tonnes of gas from Russia, and Russia was buying shit tonne of aerospace parts and stuff from Ukraine. War still happened.

[..edited out the Yugoslavia argument..]

All the proof shows "peace through trade" does not work. The only thing that works is "peace through strength", which then you can use to enforce and defend your own favorable trade policies for you and your close allies, which has been the US's MO since 1945.

[seszett]

> I meant between Ukraine, RUssia and EU.

> Yugoslav wars started in 1991 and ended in 2001. Russia invaded Crimea in 2014. Are these wars not "European" enough?

Well, Ukraine, Russia and the former Yugoslavian republics that had wars are not part of the EU, or were not at the moment they had their wars. And even though all neighbouring countries trade with the EU, their economies are much less interdependent than those of the EU countries because of the lack of free trade and freedom of movement.

So this supports the idea that the EU does prevent wars rather than invalidating it.

[FirmwareBurner]

>So this supports the idea that the EU does prevent wars rather than invalidating it.

Yes, it was all the EU economy. The 40 or so US military bases occupying the EU had nothing to do with ensuring peace on the continent.

[motorest]

> I meant how did that ensure peace between Ukraine, Russia and EU?

There lies the source of your confusion. The EU was designed to prevent wars within Europe, not between outside members. Do you think that NATO bombing Kadafi represents a failure of the EU's mission?

[adastra22]

Neither Russia nor Ukraine are part of the EU. That’s my point?

[ekianjo]

> There used to be open war between European countries every 30 years or so. That hasn’t happened. So mission accomplished?

thats a weird way to justify the logic. so one arbitrary datapoint is enough? the EU has been relocated to a second tier in terms of economic importance and they have no credibility when it comes to geopolitics. does that sound like mission accomplished?

[potatototoo99]

Very well? There hasn't been open war between EU countries since WW2.

[FirmwareBurner]

>Very well?

I meant with EU Russia and Ukraine.

Plus, France and German economies were also connected before WW2 and that didn't stop the war. And the economies of former Yugoslav nations were very well connected, that didn't stop them going to war with each other.

What stopped the wars after WW2 was western Europe being under the rule of a nuclear superpower needing to unite against a bigger nuclear superpower next door, and the countries having democracies with separation of powers making war declarations on their neighbors impossible politically, nothing to do with economies.

So the famous "muh economies connected = no war" is a very reductionist and short sighted take that ignores evrything else.

[motorest]

> I meant with EU Russia and Ukraine.

Do you believe Russia and Ukraine are a part of the EU?

> Plus, France and German economies were also connected before WW2 and that didn't stop the war.

Even if we ignore the complete ignorance required to make that statement and take it at face value, keep in mind that the interwar period lasted little more than 20 years. The EU's inception started in the early 1950s with the treaty of Rome being signed in 1957. So at this point the EU's track record on peace is already twice as long as your reference period, and counting.

[windward]

Russia has 18% interest rates, 9% inflation, and a demographic deficit of hundreds of thousands of working age men.

So we'll see if anyone wants the same.

[ekianjo]

the demographic bomb is coming for everyone, dont worry.

[myrmidon]

I think you are arguing against a strawman.

No one is saying that trade makes war impossible-- but every bit of trade is an additional incentive to not start war, especially if it affects a broad slice of the population directly (=> the average German would be much more affected from losing car exports than the average Russian from lower gas exports).

Regarding Russia:

I believe that the main mistake on the western side was underestimating Russias imperialistic ambitions combined with the almost existential risk that a western aligned, economically successful Ukraine would have been for the current regime: Russian citizens getting overtaken economically by former compatriots makes it much harder to keep the kleptocracy running; Poland is one thing, but the same happening with the Ukraine would have hit much closer.

But regardless, I'm highly confident that Russia/Putin would have decided against the war with the benefit of hindsight.

You could even argue that insufficient economical consequences (from the Europeans-- basically the other, necessary side of the peace-by-trade playbook) after the 2014 annexation were a big factor in encouraging the war in the first place.

[gambiting]

Pretty well I'd think. Myself and many(obviously not all) people of my generation consider themselves European before their primary nationality. The idea of EU states going into any kind of conflict with each others is beyond absurd.

[bluGill]

Do not confuse imperfection for not working. There has been significant peace, despite the continued existence of wars.

[pydry]

It wasnt the oil or gas. Europe was perfectly capable of substituting both.

They got away with it because they built up their industrial base while the west let its industrial base wither. It's only starting to dawn on our leaders (3+ years in) now that dropping the ball on stuff like steel, mortar and missile production actually loses wars and that it takes years to undo those mistakes.

The west's Achilles heel was always profit driven capitalism + a superiority complex. All China had to do was to systematically undercut the west on industrial inputs while its superiority complex held firm and the west took care of hollowing out its own economic and military potential.

Even today when the US produces ~50/year patriots for the entire west and Ukraine needs ~400-500/year to stay afloat some people are still telling fairy tales about how a lack of "will" was the only thing standing between putin and domination. The superiority complex hasnt even died yet.