[FirmwareBurner]

>Very well?

I meant with EU Russia and Ukraine.

Plus, France and German economies were also connected before WW2 and that didn't stop the war. And the economies of former Yugoslav nations were very well connected, that didn't stop them going to war with each other.

What stopped the wars after WW2 was western Europe being under the rule of a nuclear superpower needing to unite against a bigger nuclear superpower next door, and the countries having democracies with separation of powers making war declarations on their neighbors impossible politically, nothing to do with economies.

So the famous "muh economies connected = no war" is a very reductionist and short sighted take that ignores evrything else.

[motorest]

> I meant with EU Russia and Ukraine.

Do you believe Russia and Ukraine are a part of the EU?

> Plus, France and German economies were also connected before WW2 and that didn't stop the war.

Even if we ignore the complete ignorance required to make that statement and take it at face value, keep in mind that the interwar period lasted little more than 20 years. The EU's inception started in the early 1950s with the treaty of Rome being signed in 1957. So at this point the EU's track record on peace is already twice as long as your reference period, and counting.

[windward]

Russia has 18% interest rates, 9% inflation, and a demographic deficit of hundreds of thousands of working age men.

So we'll see if anyone wants the same.

[ekianjo]

the demographic bomb is coming for everyone, dont worry.

[myrmidon]

I think you are arguing against a strawman.

No one is saying that trade makes war impossible-- but every bit of trade is an additional incentive to not start war, especially if it affects a broad slice of the population directly (=> the average German would be much more affected from losing car exports than the average Russian from lower gas exports).

Regarding Russia:

I believe that the main mistake on the western side was underestimating Russias imperialistic ambitions combined with the almost existential risk that a western aligned, economically successful Ukraine would have been for the current regime: Russian citizens getting overtaken economically by former compatriots makes it much harder to keep the kleptocracy running; Poland is one thing, but the same happening with the Ukraine would have hit much closer.

But regardless, I'm highly confident that Russia/Putin would have decided against the war with the benefit of hindsight.

You could even argue that insufficient economical consequences (from the Europeans-- basically the other, necessary side of the peace-by-trade playbook) after the 2014 annexation were a big factor in encouraging the war in the first place.