[Newlaptop]

No one is risking multi-year commitments of millions or billions of dollars to build a factory in America when the tariffs change week to week.

If you want to incentive domestic reindustrialization, you do it with things like the Inflation Reduction Act, CHIPS act or the "Green New Deal" where congress lays out clear sets of rules in law with a mixture of tax incentives, loan programs and spending to give investors and corporations confidence to make decade-long commitments of capital to major projects.

[BrenBarn]

The problem is now it will be very hard to convince anyone to ever be confident that they can ever make decade-long commitments to anything, because anything laid out in law might be upended by a president who doesn't care about the law, aided and abetted by courts and legislators who also don't care.

We're going to need a deep reckoning with some foundational concepts of governance to dig our way out of this.

[GCUMstlyHarmls]

There was a pretty good NYT Daily interview with a small manufacturer on the 14th of April this year, "Her Business Was Thriving. Then Came the Tariffs". The business owner outlines a lot of "on the ground" issues around the tariffs & building in America (including looking at building the factory to build their products themselves).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v3pfM5v0F9U

[klooney]

They change week to week, but they're consistently an order of magnitude above where they were.

[JumpCrisscross]

> They change week to week, but they're consistently an order of magnitude above where they were

They've about doubled [1], from $55bn to $110bn.

[1] https://www.politico.com/interactives/2025/trump-tariff-inco...

[iaaan]

Ah, so a base-2 order of magnitude /s

[rob_c]

> No one is risking multi-year commitments of millions or billions of dollars to build a factory in America

Yes because of all the silicon fab plants popping up in the EU and Africa?...

[CGMthrowaway]

>No one is risking multi-year commitments of millions or billions of dollars to build a factory in America when the tariffs change week to week.

Apple: $500M over four years including a facility in Houston opening next year

Chobani: $1.7B for new facilities in Idaho and NY

J&J: $55B over four years into new facilities, a 25% increase over previous

Honda: moving 100% of Civic hybrid hatchback production to the US

Hyundai: $25B over three years

IBM: $150B over five years

Merck: $1B for a new plant in Delaware

Nvidia: For this first time in history will be manufacturing chips in the US

Roche: $50B

TSMC: $165B

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-manufacturing-domestic-tarif...

[danaris]

I don't know anything particular about the others, but Apple has been investing at least that much in increasing US production for many years now, and Chobani, AFAIK, has never had significant non-US facilities (and started in NYS—in fact, its first plant is less than 20 minutes' drive from where I work).

Given that, I question how many of these are actually caused by the tariffs.

[alephnerd]

> Given that, I question how many of these are actually caused by the tariffs.

For automotive and electronics, a lot of it was a result of CHIPS and IRA related subsidizes

That said, the tariffs do help incentivize domestic production instead of taking advantage of subsidizes from CHIPS+IRA and then comingling with SKUs from abroad.

Think of the Biden-era CHIPS+IRA as the carrot, and the Trump associated tariffs and export controls as the stick.

[relaxing]

We’ve already seen what TSMC’s promises of investment are actually worth, in Wisconsin.

Hedge your bets on these…

[alephnerd]

For every failed attempt like Wisconsin, you have equally successful industrial policies like Arizona and Texas in semiconductors. They are also Republican states like WI, but had better managed industrial policy teams.

A lot of the investments listed by OP were also thanks to CHIPS and IRA, but the tariffs have acted as the stick to force the Capex realized from CHIPS and IRA remains in the US.

Even China has been leveraging a similar strategy to force it's own manufacturers like BYD and CATL or foreign manufacturers like Foxconn to keep bleeding edge manufacturing within China by using a mix of export controls and revoking passports of Chinese nationals abroad.

> TSMC’s

That was Foxconn, not TSMC.

Also, Foxconn is an assembler, not a high value manufacturer.