[CGMthrowaway]

>No one is risking multi-year commitments of millions or billions of dollars to build a factory in America when the tariffs change week to week.

Apple: $500M over four years including a facility in Houston opening next year

Chobani: $1.7B for new facilities in Idaho and NY

J&J: $55B over four years into new facilities, a 25% increase over previous

Honda: moving 100% of Civic hybrid hatchback production to the US

Hyundai: $25B over three years

IBM: $150B over five years

Merck: $1B for a new plant in Delaware

Nvidia: For this first time in history will be manufacturing chips in the US

Roche: $50B

TSMC: $165B

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-manufacturing-domestic-tarif...

[danaris]

I don't know anything particular about the others, but Apple has been investing at least that much in increasing US production for many years now, and Chobani, AFAIK, has never had significant non-US facilities (and started in NYS—in fact, its first plant is less than 20 minutes' drive from where I work).

Given that, I question how many of these are actually caused by the tariffs.

[alephnerd]

> Given that, I question how many of these are actually caused by the tariffs.

For automotive and electronics, a lot of it was a result of CHIPS and IRA related subsidizes

That said, the tariffs do help incentivize domestic production instead of taking advantage of subsidizes from CHIPS+IRA and then comingling with SKUs from abroad.

Think of the Biden-era CHIPS+IRA as the carrot, and the Trump associated tariffs and export controls as the stick.

[relaxing]

We’ve already seen what TSMC’s promises of investment are actually worth, in Wisconsin.

Hedge your bets on these…

[alephnerd]

For every failed attempt like Wisconsin, you have equally successful industrial policies like Arizona and Texas in semiconductors. They are also Republican states like WI, but had better managed industrial policy teams.

A lot of the investments listed by OP were also thanks to CHIPS and IRA, but the tariffs have acted as the stick to force the Capex realized from CHIPS and IRA remains in the US.

Even China has been leveraging a similar strategy to force it's own manufacturers like BYD and CATL or foreign manufacturers like Foxconn to keep bleeding edge manufacturing within China by using a mix of export controls and revoking passports of Chinese nationals abroad.

> TSMC’s

That was Foxconn, not TSMC.

Also, Foxconn is an assembler, not a high value manufacturer.