[ihsw]

The anti-robot truck lobby will probably come out in full force soon.

A trucker that doesn't have to 1) eat 2) sleep 3) experience fatigue -- this trucker is vastly superior. There is already a lot of analytics measuring truck performance, metrics which would make autonomous trucks very feasible.

[danielweber]

Here is a political ad against someone who supported self-driving cars.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NUuBXCEWOhc&feature=playe...

[ralfd]

Wow! Just wow!

[run4yourlives]

And this is the true market for robotic vehicles (at least at the outset).

Transport trucks spend hours on interstates between points going in relatively straight lines, at relatively low traffic times.

The trucking industry will be dead 5-10 years after robot trucks start appearing on the road.

EDIT: Sorry "trucking industry" should be in quotes, as yes, by this I mean the idea of people driving trucks, which is 90% of the "industry". The actual industry itself isn't going anywhere, agreed. My fault in the miscommunication.

[camiller]

I'm pretty sure that long-haul truckers are well under half the truck driving profession. Pay attention to the number of semi-trucks delivering food and other products to schools / restaurants / convenience stores etc. Oh and those drivers have to unload the shipments as well. I don't think the truck industry will disappear, but there will be a shift in the mix of long-haul vs. short-haul truckers.

[run4yourlives]

The "shift" as you put it will be very temporary though. It will quite quickly become common place for all commercial vehicles to be self directing once some vehicles are. (Think FedEx, UPS leading this charge)

That said, that "shift" is when it's going to be a really, really shitty time to be a truck driver, as the influx of people competing for fewer and fewer jobs is going to drive prices (wages) down into pits of dark despair.

[klipt]

With FedEx and UPS you still need someone to drop the package in the mailbox...

[run4yourlives]

Sure, but now that person doesn't need a commercial drivers licence, or a licence at all.

[bathat]

This is a very important point. Not just that, but the "offload person" won't be a member of the teamster's union (seeing as how they aren't actually driving the truck) and will have a more reasonable wage.

As chollida1 points out, UPS/Fedex may not be allowed to lift the CLD requirement quite yet, but that will probably come in time.

[camiller]

IIRC, If you are under 26,001 Lbs GVW you don't legally need a CDL (unless Hazmat). Some carriers like UPS/FedEX may require a CDL anyway, but that is a company policy.

[chollida1]

> Sure, but now that person doesn't need a commercial drivers licence, or a licence at all.

I'm pretty sure the laws stipulate that a licensed driver must be in the drivers seat.

[camiller]

I'm not really thinking FedEX or UPS, I'm thinking of the driver for Reinhart food services delivering food to my son's school. That is a Semi-truck backed into a very small parking lot and he has to hustle a dozen or more two wheel hand trucks full of food/supplies off the truck to the kitchen, before he goes on to another school/hospital/restaurant.

[fghh45sdfhr3]

Not so much the industry as trucker as a profession. Trucks will be all over the place, just not driven by humans.

And then there's all the service stops which now offer food, etc for truckers. I expect few of them will successful transition to serve tourists exclusively.

[arrrg]

The industry will be just fine. It's just the truck driver profession that will die.

The existing actors, however, might well be unable to drive that transition and they might consequently die and be replaced by other, new actors.

[bathat]

It depends on how good their marketing is. Trucks will initially probably still need a human in the cab. Truckers often drive in pairs so that the rig can be rolling for 20-22 hours per day. The way you get drivers to embrace the technology is by lobbying for laws that would allow a single driver to be at the wheel for, say, 14-16 hours at a time.

That's enough for a pair of drivers to keep the truck on the road continuously, and maybe almost enough to make it worthwhile to have just a single driver (so the cab owner doesn't have to split his profits with anyone). After gradually raising hours over the course of a few years, you can declare drivers optional. Owner-operators would still ride in the cab so they could handle pickup and delivery of trailers, but fleet owners might just hire drivers on the spot for things like that.

Edit: My (mis)understanding of trucking hours of service was based on a conversation with a truck drive a few months ago. Apparently, you can drive 14 hours continuously after taking 10 hours off. However, I think the point still stands that truck drivers will be less resistant to the introduction of robotic trucks if they perceive the change as a (at least short-term) benefit to them by increasing allowable driving time.

[jorgem]

Luckily, truck drivers don't just drive. For a lot of short haul trucking (and probably long haul), they have to load and unload the truck.

And fix the truck when it breaks down (if possible). And deal with problems when the wrong shipment goes to the wrong place, etc.

And protect the contents of the truck.

Driving is just one piece.

[maxerickson]

Freight prices are low enough that I saw a company complaining that they can't afford the insurance on inexperienced drivers. So it at least has the potential to be a short term problem.

[emiliobumachar]

Truckers are safe as long as the bots require a human standby at all times. Their job will be much easier.