[iab]

If it happens or it doesn’t then it must be 50/50 odds

[Lockal]

A smart person just said: my hypothesis that event is likely happen! It happens 90% of the time!

Some time passed, the event did not happen. Same person said: ok, 50%, either happens or not.

Some time passed, the event did not happen. Same person said: all my previous predictions were correct, now let's apply Bayesian update: (1-0.9) * 0.5 / 0.5 = 0.1, so now posterior belief that the event is likely to happen drops from 50% to 10%.

[iab]

Nah this is too complicated I think

[techpineapple]

I'm not a statistician, but I'm pretty sure this is not how odds work. "Either I win the lottery tomorrow or I don't!"

[iab]

Sounds right to me, honestly people make stats so much harder than it needs to be