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by Lockal
363 days ago
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A smart person just said: my hypothesis that event is likely happen! It happens 90% of the time! Some time passed, the event did not happen. Same person said: ok, 50%, either happens or not. Some time passed, the event did not happen. Same person said: all my previous predictions were correct, now let's apply Bayesian update: (1-0.9) * 0.5 / 0.5 = 0.1, so now posterior belief that the event is likely to happen drops from 50% to 10%. |
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