[somethoughts]

Food for thought - originally Netflix was a single tier at $9.99 with no ads. As ZIRP ended and investors told Netflix its VC-like honeymoon period was over - ads were introduced at $6.99 and the basic no ad tier went to $15.99 and the Premium went to 19.99.

Using Netflix as the pricing model, when VCs eventually say no to anymore Softbank style free lunches to buy market share - then ad free LLM services could go from $19.99 to $35.99 and possibly $49.99 at the high end (i.e. unlimited) per month.

[autoexec]

Netflix was originally $5.00 a month and there were zero ads. Now, even the "ad free" tier of netflix is full of advertising. Pause a show for more than 5 seconds, ads will start to play. Did a move you were watching just end? Ads for other shows will start to play (if they don't just start playing whatever they want automatically).

Just opening netflix gives you a huge ad banner at the top of the page. I've seen netflix advertise certain shows and movies with full screen ads you have to click past or scroll down past just to get to the "continue watching" category.

I've seen large half-screen sized vertical ads for certain shows shoved between two categories while scrolling down the page, and the same movies and shows are aggressively shoved into category after category to advertise them to you as you try to look for what you want to watch.

Categories like "trending" or "popular" are intended to sound objective, but the shows featured in them will change depending on who is logged in because they're actually just targeted ads.

Netflix's "ad-free" tier is filled with ads and unfortunately they're still less ad-infested than most streaming services.

[geodel]

> then ad free LLM services could go from $19.99 to $35.99 and possibly $49.99 at the high end (i.e. unlimited) per month.

I expect it to be at least this high or even higher so that < 3-5% people can afford that. It seems to be one of those things where few people paying lot > lot of people paying few dollars.

I think even ad supported versions will evolve to be applicable to enterprise requirements instead of being ad-free by default.