[readthenotes1]

"To say anything else implies an opinion that the mean human would cognitively overestimate or underestimate the quantity, and this is equivalent to an opinion on human cognitive bias for this specific problem"

for a slightly more skeptical take:

https://mindmatters.ai/2020/11/the-wisdom-of-crowds-are-crow...

(It mentions a requirement to be unbiased and independent, which means it doesn't apply to most modern things)

[pentamassiv]

I also struggle with that part. the author makes it seem like guessing correctly is the logical conclusion of not having an opinion and thus not over- or underestimating.

One assumption is that humans can estimate at all. The average could just as well be zero, 100 or a random value.

A monkey probably doesn't have an opinion about an ox, but I doubt a group of monkeys can estimate the weight of an ox.

Send like there are more conditions that need to be fulfilled in order for it to work