[sofixa]

> Yes Poland will join, absolutely: the battle for Suwalki/Kaliningrad will affect it directly if anything. But without the US commitment (which I hope you realize is not happening) there is a 1 in 3 chance of Putin's substantial success.

So you think that a Russia that cannot defeat Ukraine has a chance to win, meaning you think they have the troops, equipment and logistics to defeat Poland, the Baltics and Finland at the same time? There is no planet on which this makes sense.

> So Putin has a fair, largely consequence free shot at it but the window of opportunity will close within a year or two.

Not only does he not have the troops nor equipment, a year or two window still leaves Macron in the Elysée who will not let such an attack slide, up to and including potential nuclear weapons. And has stated so clearly and publicly.

You seem very confident, but your premise is wrong and lacking in critical information.

[varjag]

> So you think that a Russia that cannot defeat Ukraine has a chance to win, meaning you think they have the troops, equipment and logistics to defeat Poland, the Baltics and Finland at the same time?

No, just the Baltics. There will be no attack on Polish or Finnish mainland and so would these countries reciprocate only on the Baltic theatre. Neither Poland nor Finland will commit all their resources to defending the Baltics exposing the rest of their border.

The Baltics can be supplied only by air, sea and a very vulnerable land corridor. Air and sea will be very much excluded for the duration of hostilites and the Suwalki gap heavily contested. If Russia would manage to hold onto it long enough the Baltic story will be one huge siege of Mariupol. For Estonia the odds are the worst: even if the siege is broken and its neighbors are liberated it's too small and too close to Russia mainland that it could still remain under effective Russian control.

> You seem very confident, but your premise is wrong and lacking in critical information.

Well back in September 2021 I felt that the attack on Ukraine is coming (and have the receipts for that). Certainly not just me alone but at that moment and up to the very invasion there was huge skepticism around, and not just among Putin shills. "How would it help Russian security?" "But Sweden and Finland would join NATO!" "Russian economy would reel from sanctions, why do that!" Yet here we are.

I remember participating at a national championship here in Norway on 18.02.2024 and my teammate asked me what do I think of the situation. My take was that we're days, if not hours from the invasion and certainly within a week. He was quite startled by it then.

This year on the same championship people in the cafeteria were talking about the coming war matter-of-factly.

[sofixa]

> No, just the Baltics. There will be no attack on Polish or Finnish mainland and so would these countries reciprocate only on the Baltic theatre. Neither Poland nor Finland will commit all their resources to defending the Baltics exposing the rest of their border

Ah, so your premise is even wronger. You're making a Hitler style assumption of a limited war.

If Russia attacks the Baltics, Poland and Finland will join for sure. Poland will attack and probably conquer Kaliningrad (which is more isolated than the Baltic is), establishing firm lines of communication with the Baltic states. They will also advance wherever it makes sense in Russia/Belarus, including Ukraine for an environment if they think it makes sense.

Finland can attack towards St Petersbourg. I don't know if they would, but it would be the main contribution they could make.

As for you being right before, past performance is not indicative of future success. Just because you correctly identified Putin's intentions once doesn't mean you understand the Russian army and what it's capable of.

And it is not capable of taking on Poland. Kaliningrad is isolated and hard to supply right now, let alone in a war.

And you're also talking about a window of 1-2 years, but you're forgetting Macron and Starmer.

[varjag]

This is a pointless conversation. I could turn around and accuse you of being overconfident just as well, especially in the days when Germany and France feel it prudent to covnert automobile plants to tank manufacturing.

I naturally hope there will be no broader war but there is plenty of odds to it, and dismissing this is just hubris. Cheers.

[sofixa]

Yes, Germany and France and the UK are gearing up for war. Then why do you claim that Russia will attack the Baltic and there's a chance it will be a limited war only there? Do you think Germany and France are gearing up for fun and won't actually do anything if Russia tests their resolve with an attack on a direct ally? Especially when Macron is publicly stating that France's nuclear weapons also protect Europe?

There might be a broader war, yes. That doesn't mean Russia has realistic hopes or chances of it remaining local, and Russia coming out with anything resembling a win.