[sofixa]

> No, just the Baltics. There will be no attack on Polish or Finnish mainland and so would these countries reciprocate only on the Baltic theatre. Neither Poland nor Finland will commit all their resources to defending the Baltics exposing the rest of their border

Ah, so your premise is even wronger. You're making a Hitler style assumption of a limited war.

If Russia attacks the Baltics, Poland and Finland will join for sure. Poland will attack and probably conquer Kaliningrad (which is more isolated than the Baltic is), establishing firm lines of communication with the Baltic states. They will also advance wherever it makes sense in Russia/Belarus, including Ukraine for an environment if they think it makes sense.

Finland can attack towards St Petersbourg. I don't know if they would, but it would be the main contribution they could make.

As for you being right before, past performance is not indicative of future success. Just because you correctly identified Putin's intentions once doesn't mean you understand the Russian army and what it's capable of.

And it is not capable of taking on Poland. Kaliningrad is isolated and hard to supply right now, let alone in a war.

And you're also talking about a window of 1-2 years, but you're forgetting Macron and Starmer.

[varjag]

This is a pointless conversation. I could turn around and accuse you of being overconfident just as well, especially in the days when Germany and France feel it prudent to covnert automobile plants to tank manufacturing.

I naturally hope there will be no broader war but there is plenty of odds to it, and dismissing this is just hubris. Cheers.

[sofixa]

Yes, Germany and France and the UK are gearing up for war. Then why do you claim that Russia will attack the Baltic and there's a chance it will be a limited war only there? Do you think Germany and France are gearing up for fun and won't actually do anything if Russia tests their resolve with an attack on a direct ally? Especially when Macron is publicly stating that France's nuclear weapons also protect Europe?

There might be a broader war, yes. That doesn't mean Russia has realistic hopes or chances of it remaining local, and Russia coming out with anything resembling a win.