[Infinity315]

For whatever reason, people did not believe Trump would be this crazy. In fact, people in the stock market still do not believe he is this crazy. If they did, the stock market would drop much lower. From what I've heard from people in finance, the bond market is indicating some economic growth this year. If this goes on, expect a financial crisis which rivals that of the Great Depression.

It's not a lack of foresight, it's just that they do not believe him or believe that someone will stop him. People have just misread Donald Trump and his intentions.

[disgruntledphd2]

To be fair, he said he would do all this crazy stuff the first time but didn't. So there's some evidence for the position that he wouldn't do crazy stuff.

Also, it's hard for people to understand that someone in power might just not understand why their decisions are a terrible, terrible idea (see politicians and backdooring encryption for a tech example of this).

[beAbU]

He didn't do those things, or he couldn't? Not too familiar with American politics, but AIUI his majority was much weaker last time round, possibly resulting in some of his crazy being kept under control?

[andelink]

Yes, he couldn't. Anyone paying attention knows he tried.

[disgruntledphd2]

Well it was more that basically all the people he appointed talked him down last time.

This time he picked based on loyalty, so it's pretty much whatever he wants (apparently tariffs).

[ZeroGravitas]

Yes the latest Goldman Sachs recession forecast is 45% probability, which is what makes it into the headlines.

However the report says this is assuming the tariffs won't go into effect. The flagship policy Trump just announced after going on about how the most beautiful word is "tariff" for four decades.

If they go into effect it goes higher. But why assume that the President of the USA will actually do what he just said he'd do in a big speech with giant printed props.