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by ZeroGravitas 443 days ago
Yes the latest Goldman Sachs recession forecast is 45% probability, which is what makes it into the headlines.

However the report says this is assuming the tariffs won't go into effect. The flagship policy Trump just announced after going on about how the most beautiful word is "tariff" for four decades.

If they go into effect it goes higher. But why assume that the President of the USA will actually do what he just said he'd do in a big speech with giant printed props.