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by Aurornis
441 days ago
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> "The market" has no idea what the impact of the proposed changes are. Setting aside the obvious questions about whether or not this stuff will even happen, it's just not possible for something this complex to be evaluated so quickly. This is just false. Countless people were busy running scenarios based on the expected range of tariffs. It wasn’t a surprise that tariffs were coming. It was a shock that they were so insanely high and that the people putting them forward were so clueless about it. > [1] Just for example: what does it even mean for an "X% tarrif on all products from country Y" to be imposed? The Harmonized Tariff Schedule is hundreds of thousands of line items, each with a different rate. Are they all being replaced with a single number? Is that line item number being multiplied by a factor? Something else? I guarantee that almost nobody knows the answer to that question right now. I'm not even sure an answer exists. You’re projecting your own lack of understanding on to everybody else. The changes have been out already and any company that does business has already read through the documents. Just because you don’t know or understand doesn’t mean that nobody does. |
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Appeal to authority ("the experts did the math!"), but OK...
> It wasn’t a surprise that tariffs were coming. It was a shock that they were so insanely high and that the people putting them forward were so clueless about it.
Right. So...they didn't do these scenarios. Which means (repeat after me): everyone is guessing.
Even if I accept your appeal to authority, and even if I assume that their "models" are sufficiently good to predict the future in a chaotic unfolding scenario involving dramatic changes to a complex global trade system [1], I basically guarantee that the average market player is "vibe trading" right now, not working from these models.
I'm not saying that it's impossible to work out the answer. I'm saying that takes time.
[1] LOL.