[timr]

> This is just false. Countless people were busy running scenarios based on the expected range of tariffs.

Appeal to authority ("the experts did the math!"), but OK...

> It wasn’t a surprise that tariffs were coming. It was a shock that they were so insanely high and that the people putting them forward were so clueless about it.

Right. So...they didn't do these scenarios. Which means (repeat after me): everyone is guessing.

Even if I accept your appeal to authority, and even if I assume that their "models" are sufficiently good to predict the future in a chaotic unfolding scenario involving dramatic changes to a complex global trade system [1], I basically guarantee that the average market player is "vibe trading" right now, not working from these models.

I'm not saying that it's impossible to work out the answer. I'm saying that takes time.

[1] LOL.