X-Com: Enemy Known, where you're forced to play with a certain squad leader who is always either out of Time Units, panicking, or mind-controlled, and a 99% hit chance is not really 99%.
I feel like you might be confused about the statement. One platform gives 58% odds, the other gives 64% odds. This is obviously high, but also very far from virtually guaranteed. In 100 trials, we’d expect recession in ~60 events. There is no secret math hidden here, it’s just that.