[roenxi]

Sure. And what was the probability of something like that happening? About a coin flip.

It is an election using First-Past-the-Post counting. A 50:50 probability doesn't mean the final count will be close, it (usually, anyway) means there is evens odds which side is about to win decisively. The county results are expected to correlate, as are the swing states in all likelihood.

[genewitch]

the probability of 89% of blue counties (in 2020) switching to red counties is a 50-50 chance? can you show your work?

[roenxi]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

You'll note that the distribution mode for a Trump win was 312 electoral votes; which is what he got. They do a good forecast - it suggests there was a 50-50 chance Trump wins, and if he wins the most likely outcome is ... exactly what happened.

If it was a Harris win the best bet is she would have gotten 319 electoral votes with high correlation in the swing states too.

[genewitch]

you still didn't watch the video i linked^, and you did not answer my actual question: 89% of counties turning red compared to the 2020 election is a 50-50 chance? Can you show your work?

^ The person in the video explains why thinking it is 50-50 chance is detrimental to the liberal cause.