[roenxi]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

You'll note that the distribution mode for a Trump win was 312 electoral votes; which is what he got. They do a good forecast - it suggests there was a 50-50 chance Trump wins, and if he wins the most likely outcome is ... exactly what happened.

If it was a Harris win the best bet is she would have gotten 319 electoral votes with high correlation in the swing states too.

[genewitch]

you still didn't watch the video i linked^, and you did not answer my actual question: 89% of counties turning red compared to the 2020 election is a 50-50 chance? Can you show your work?

^ The person in the video explains why thinking it is 50-50 chance is detrimental to the liberal cause.