[nwiswell]

I believe this is due to a surge in imports in response to looming tariffs - supply chains are trying to stockpile before they hit. I am skeptical that this stockpiling is significantly displacing real investment.

The way that the figures are calculated views imports as a negative factor to GDP (because NET exports is an input to the model). Please correct me if I am wrong.

In any event, view the headline with suspicion.

[bryanlarsen]

Imports are neutral to GDP. The reason they're subtracted in the standard formula for GDP is that makes it easier to count.

GDP = Consumption + Investment + Government Spending + Exports - Imports

The reason that imports are subtracted is because Consumption, Government Spending and Exports all have a domestic and imported component. So instead you could have GDP = (Domestically produced consumption) + Investment + (Government spending on domestic products) + (Domestically produced Exports) and not subtract imports.

But that's a lot harder to measure than measuring totals and subtracting imports.

[827a]

Imports may be neutral to GDP, but they aren't neutral to this forecasting model [1]

[1] https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/03/a-comment-on-gdpn...

[bryanlarsen]

Yes, they're part of the model because they're not excluded during consumption calculations.

[JumpCrisscross]

> this is due to a surge in imports in response to looming tariffs

“GDPNow is an excellent tracking model, however, the January surge in imports - especially for gold - caused the model to move negative. As the Atlanta Fed noted: ‘the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth fell from -0.41 percentage points to -3.70 percentage points’.

Usually there would be an offsetting increase in inventories, but that is a lagging indicator. This is a short-term distortion and will balance out over the next month or so. I don't expect negative GDP in Q1.”

[1] https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/03/a-comment-on-gdpn...

[simne]

I think, this named deferred demand - people known before about new tariffs and buy really need things before new policy taken effect, so now will be some time without new buys.

It will normalize in few years, may be for some markets in few months, and for some will need decades, from EU practice.