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by JumpCrisscross
473 days ago
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> this is due to a surge in imports in response to looming tariffs “GDPNow is an excellent tracking model, however, the January surge in imports - especially for gold - caused the model to move negative. As the Atlanta Fed noted: ‘the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth fell from -0.41 percentage points to -3.70 percentage points’. Usually there would be an offsetting increase in inventories, but that is a lagging indicator. This is a short-term distortion and will balance out over the next month or so. I don't expect negative GDP in Q1.” [1] https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/03/a-comment-on-gdpn... |
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