[AtlasBarfed]

Batteries are steadily improving, at least in the cost factor. We haven't seen any 2x leaps in density from sulfur or solid state or aluminum air.

But LFP and Sodium Ion are making undeniable progress in cheap usable EV batteries that don't require nickel or cobalt.

[phtrivier]

> cheap usable EV batteries

I know this is going to sound harsh, but I will personnally consider EV batteries "cheap" only when they pass the very scientific "my mom can use the EV exactly like shes uses her car, and she does not notice" test:

* on one charge, drive 10-50km daily for 350 days in a year

* on one charge, drive 1000km in one go for the holidays

* it must be less than 10kE at a local car dealership

* it can be plugged in your garage

* if you forgot to charge it, you can stop every 10km to recharge in 10m

I know: "it's harsh" ! "We should change our car usage" ! "My mom should live differently to accomodate the technology", etc... Go tell that to my mom.

Still, that's the goal post I've been having for 20y, and 10y ago people where writing headlines about "breakthroughs" that would make this possible any time now. And it's not. So I'm burnt out, kinda.

[Earw0rm]

If you fix your goalposts for long enough, cohort effects will move around them.

I'm not sure how old your mom is, but 1000km drives aren't something most people want to be doing past 75 ish. And newer cohorts adapt their lifestyles and expectations to available technology, whether that's charging time, on-demand rental for the occasionally needed longer distance EVs, and so on.

Although I can't help thinking that hybrids are a better fit for this common usage pattern - given a choice between hauling the dead weight of a rarely-used gasoline engine, or the dead weight of the 80% of battery capacity you hardly ever use, the gas engine is cheaper and less demanding of rare metals.

It's a shame that weight considerations mean "rent 80% extra range in a removable module for occasional use" isn't a practical option. You could almost have a 10kWh/50km light EV with a gasoline generator or extra battery in a hitch trailer, but the trade-offs don't quite work.

[phtrivier]

> And newer cohorts adapt their lifestyles and expectations to available technology, whether that's charging time, on-demand rental for the occasionally needed longer distance EVs, and so on.

Alternatively, they will keep living their life exactly the way they have so far, and refuse to use the "new" technology until it has caught up with the "old" one.

"Regulations" could in theory help, if it served as enough of an incentive for car makers to pay some serious R&D and get the "new" tech on par with the old one.

Problem is, in practice, though, the option to "not care about the regulation and elect right wing people until it's dropped" is easier than paying chemist and physicists.

And selling my mom a 2t SUV is much better for the shareholders.

So, never mind. At some point, one "game changing revolutionary breakthrough" will actually break through something and change some game.

Or, my mum will die of old age, bitching about those stupid pseudo "cars" that their grand kids can't use to visit her because the battery is too small.

(No, wait, HN tells my mum will actually not die, thanks to some "game changing AI-powered breakthrough in biotech")

[AtlasBarfed]

Dude, get a PHEV.

[rgmerk]

I'm not sure I'm seeing the relevance here. Incremental advances in battery tech (or even futuristic step-change prospects like lithium-air batteries) won't solve intercontinental shipping.