[talldayo]

It doesn't make sense, and Ukraine has already stated that they don't agree to any ceasefire they don't personally negotiate. Just yesterday American leadership tried tricking them into signing a deal after levying a (quickly retracted) threat: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-russia-set-begin-high-sta...

Only Ukraine can sue for peace, and they've stated quite openly that they will not give Russia the land they occupy. Trump's admin can negotiate whatever they want behind closed doors, but Ukrainian leadership has no obligation to listen. Trump doesn't have the leverage he would like with NATO starting to well up the bases of European support.

[consumer451]

I agree with you, and European nations are now proposing a historic $700B deal to support Ukraine. As the USA chooses to end the American Century, my only hope is that the next century will be led not by China, but by Europe.

What I don't understand is why people like Musk and Sachs, two very influential Trump admin members, have been perfectly aligned with Putin. For years, they have repeated Kremlin talking points word for word. It's uncanny.

Trump himself was accused of being a Moscow stooge for years, and yet came out very strong against Russian aggression during the first weeks of his administration. Suddenly, it's all exactly what Putin wants. What happened? Was it all theater?

[defrost]

As much as I agree with you, there are a good number that think Ukraine has no say in any of this, eg. from:

Ukraine not invited to US-Russia peace talks https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43072691

with an apparent implicit starting point that Ukraine has already lost the war and it's now A-Okay for Russia and the US to divide up the spoils ...

NB: downvoters .. shooting the messenger? It's not my belief that Ukraine has no agency here, just an attitude common to backseat wargamers.

[consumer451]

What you linked is such "half-court tennis" thinking about modern geopolitics, that it is staggering.

It entirely ignores not only the wishes of the country in question, but the entire continent and economic bloc between the USA and Russia.

This is some kind of weird magical thinking where somehow the USA remains influential, as it withdraws from positions of global influence.

What happens if the EU and Ukraine don't agree with the US position on Russia? Will the USA threaten and sanction the EU? What other option is the USA leaving itself?

[defrost]

> That is such "half-court tennis" thinking about geopolitics, that it is staggering.

Yep.

I can't account for it.

I'm 60+ and spent much of my life travelling through three quarters of the globe for geophysical exploration in search of minerals and energy, often in contentious areas (South China Sea, Mali, Congo, India | Pakistan intersticial zone, former USSR, etc.). There's a lot of bold plays for territory and resources made, a lot of fierce resistance.

The blind belief that the US and Russia get to dissect this and everybody else (EU countries, former bloc countries, Ukraine) will just go along with whatever the "major powers" decide isn't something well grounded in history.

Trump's goto move is over the top in your face bluster followed by taking ownership of whatever falls out as the plan all along. (eg: Taking credit for Canada delivering what was already promised before any tariffs were threatened).

That's suprisingly effective and swept his base along with him . . . but it doesn't work forever.