[defrost]

> That is such "half-court tennis" thinking about geopolitics, that it is staggering.

Yep.

I can't account for it.

I'm 60+ and spent much of my life travelling through three quarters of the globe for geophysical exploration in search of minerals and energy, often in contentious areas (South China Sea, Mali, Congo, India | Pakistan intersticial zone, former USSR, etc.). There's a lot of bold plays for territory and resources made, a lot of fierce resistance.

The blind belief that the US and Russia get to dissect this and everybody else (EU countries, former bloc countries, Ukraine) will just go along with whatever the "major powers" decide isn't something well grounded in history.

Trump's goto move is over the top in your face bluster followed by taking ownership of whatever falls out as the plan all along. (eg: Taking credit for Canada delivering what was already promised before any tariffs were threatened).

That's suprisingly effective and swept his base along with him . . . but it doesn't work forever.