[bambax]

Government is a huge ship where everything happens slowly. If you fire all sailors at once, you won't notice the difference immediately. The phantom ship continues to sail.

Then engines start to heat up and fail. And if there's an obstacle along the way, it's game over.

This is a dangerous game played by morons full of hubris.

On June 16 YC organizes an "AI Startup School"; the first speaker is Elon Musk:

https://www.ycombinator.com/blog/ai-startupschool

What a shame.

[Aeolun]

The good thing about these massive ships is that they take a loong time to sink.

If my guesses are correct, it’ll work just long enough for another administration to take over to deal with the fallout.

[ben_w]

> The good thing about these massive ships is that they take a loong time to sink.

Faster than people realise. The CIA was surprised by suddenness and swiftness of the collapse of the USSR — yes, there were other predictions that it would collapse imminently, but such are made of every country and organisation all the time, of those who should have known best (the Russian government on the inside, the CIA on the outside), it was a surprise.

[throw0101d]

> If my guesses are correct, it’ll work just long enough for another administration to take over to deal with the fallout.

Assuming things have not deteriorated too much by then that it can still be fixed.

Further, if it completely breaks down by then they may get the blame, even though it was not their fault.

This also assumes that an administration with a different philosophy gets in: if things are still "fine", another bunch of GOP deconstructionists could get in and continue things. In addition, DOGE is not about cost-cutting but about ideological purging, and so what's left of the civil service could act to sabotage any 'recovery efforts'.

[shmobot]

Just be careful when using analogies. The massive ship named USSR sank in a matter of months.

[alephnerd]

> The massive ship named USSR sank in a matter of months

There was a decade of dysfunction and ossification before the USSR collapsed within a couple months

A decade of low oil prices (affecting exports), high defense spending (increasing deficit), societal unrest due to the resurgence of nationalism, and slowing productivity all happened quietly over the 1980s before catalyzing into collapse.

[pjc50]

> decade of low oil prices (affecting exports), high defense spending (increasing deficit), societal unrest due to the resurgence of nationalism, and slowing productivity

Good thing the US hasn't .. oh.

(the oil price is actually OK as is the trade balance, so far, but social cohesion is fraying and people are always complaining about productivity)

[shmobot]

Sure, you can tell now when looking back. But at the time, it tremendously surprised everyone, both inside and outside.

The country could have continued like this for years, if not decades, were it not for a few men and coincidental events.

[_DeadFred_]

US productivity is going into things like un-avoidable advertisements from your new Jeep when you come to a stop, embedding dark patterns for everything, and spending all R&D on a tool to replace all human workers. A nation can totally be held together heathily under today's 'productivity'.

[kccoder]

Many of these things have been happening in the US for the better part of a decade (or longer).

Did the USSR have an entire administration rapidly and deliberately tearing down their government, or was it more of the cracks in the foundation finally giving out?

Just because the former took a decade doesn't mean that this will require the same amount of time.

[occz]

I guess it could be argued that it had been in the process of sinking for a longer time, but I don't know enough about the history of the USSR to assert that being the case

[bambax]

But that's exactly my point. Nothing happens for decades (apparently!) and then it all crashes in minutes.

[Aeolun]

I honestly prefer that outcome. At least that’d be a reset instead of this infinite downward cycle.

[shmobot]

Such resets are sometimes followed by civil wars, economy crashes style "there is no food for tomorrow" and a generational trauma. As the one who has been through it, be careful what you wish for.

[ty6853]

Man to man, you and I both know -- if you've really been there -- that while no one hopes for one many thrive on it. GP may well be one of those.

[ben_w]

> I honestly prefer that outcome. At least that’d be a reset instead of this infinite downward cycle.

If the USA gets a repeat of the USSR collapse, you're looking at an independent Texas and California (and perhaps Hawaii?) within a few years, 50% GDP loss, proper hyperinflation, infighting over the nuclear arsenal being under federal authority or the authority of whichever state it happened to be physically in at the time, and a 6-7 year reduction in life expectancy.

[Aeolun]

Yeah, but Europe will finally realize their big brother is a dysfunctional alcoholic.

[verzali]

That'll show them losers.

[orphea]

Is it a good thing though? It means it takes the same loong time until problems are noticed and reacted upon.

[kohbo]

With the right people in place, inspections and preventative maintenance happen

[theshackleford]

> Government is a huge ship where everything happens slowly. If you fire all sailors at once, you won't notice the difference immediately. The phantom ship continues to sail.

Happens to business too. People don’t realise how long these entities can circle the drain.

[kccoder]

I feel like businesses aren't actively trying to dismantle themselves, but rather the decay, due to neglect/hubris/greed/..., builds to a critical mass over time. This administration is actively trying to dismantle as much of the government as fast as possible. I think the fall could happen much faster than people expect.

[mikewarot]

The Global Reserve Currency status the US Dollar now enjoys, is quite unlikely to survive this Administration.

We in the US are about to take a 50 to 90% drop in our standard of living as a result. 8(