> The good thing about these massive ships is that they take a loong time to sink.
Faster than people realise. The CIA was surprised by suddenness and swiftness of the collapse of the USSR — yes, there were other predictions that it would collapse imminently, but such are made of every country and organisation all the time, of those who should have known best (the Russian government on the inside, the CIA on the outside), it was a surprise.
> If my guesses are correct, it’ll work just long enough for another administration to take over to deal with the fallout.
Assuming things have not deteriorated too much by then that it can still be fixed.
Further, if it completely breaks down by then they may get the blame, even though it was not their fault.
This also assumes that an administration with a different philosophy gets in: if things are still "fine", another bunch of GOP deconstructionists could get in and continue things. In addition, DOGE is not about cost-cutting but about ideological purging, and so what's left of the civil service could act to sabotage any 'recovery efforts'.
> The massive ship named USSR sank in a matter of months
There was a decade of dysfunction and ossification before the USSR collapsed within a couple months
A decade of low oil prices (affecting exports), high defense spending (increasing deficit), societal unrest due to the resurgence of nationalism, and slowing productivity all happened quietly over the 1980s before catalyzing into collapse.
> decade of low oil prices (affecting exports), high defense spending (increasing deficit), societal unrest due to the resurgence of nationalism, and slowing productivity
Good thing the US hasn't .. oh.
(the oil price is actually OK as is the trade balance, so far, but social cohesion is fraying and people are always complaining about productivity)
US productivity is going into things like un-avoidable advertisements from your new Jeep when you come to a stop, embedding dark patterns for everything, and spending all R&D on a tool to replace all human workers. A nation can totally be held together heathily under today's 'productivity'.
Many of these things have been happening in the US for the better part of a decade (or longer).
Did the USSR have an entire administration rapidly and deliberately tearing down their government, or was it more of the cracks in the foundation finally giving out?
Just because the former took a decade doesn't mean that this will require the same amount of time.
I guess it could be argued that it had been in the process of sinking for a longer time, but I don't know enough about the history of the USSR to assert that being the case
Such resets are sometimes followed by civil wars, economy crashes style "there is no food for tomorrow" and a generational trauma. As the one who has been through it, be careful what you wish for.
> I honestly prefer that outcome. At least that’d be a reset instead of this infinite downward cycle.
If the USA gets a repeat of the USSR collapse, you're looking at an independent Texas and California (and perhaps Hawaii?) within a few years, 50% GDP loss, proper hyperinflation, infighting over the nuclear arsenal being under federal authority or the authority of whichever state it happened to be physically in at the time, and a 6-7 year reduction in life expectancy.
Faster than people realise. The CIA was surprised by suddenness and swiftness of the collapse of the USSR — yes, there were other predictions that it would collapse imminently, but such are made of every country and organisation all the time, of those who should have known best (the Russian government on the inside, the CIA on the outside), it was a surprise.