[simonw]

Alternatively: if AI makes a good developer 2x more productive (which I do think is possible based on my own experience), developers are now 2x more valuable to employers. The cost of building software drops in half, which means employers that previously wouldn't have developed their own software (too expensive) are now in the market for custom solutions. Demand for developers goes up.

If you believe that making developers 10% more productive results in a need for ~10% less developers, why didn't open source software over the past ~20 years harm our profession?

Working with open source packages from npm and PyPI has given me WAY more than a 10% boost - so much stuff I don't have to write from scratch now!

[codr7]

Yeah, define productive.

Because I suspect that comes with learning a lot less in the process and lower quality output.

[simonw]

My own usage of LLMs to help me code has resulted in me learning more and producing higher quality output.

You have to use them diligently, but it's definitely possible to avoid the obvious downsides of working in this way.

[codr7]

And what kind of experience do you have?

Because I suspect it depends a lot on skill level.

[simonw]

25+ years getting paid money to write software.

[codr7]

shrugs Sorry, I have no explanation then.

Because I have the same level of experience and to me, for my way of working, they're obviously mostly useless.

[bdangubic]

same and 100% sure can do it for another 25+ if I wanted to work that long