[cycrutchfield]

> Realistically no amount of weapons the west supplies Ukraine is going to enable them to push the Russians out of Ukraine.

OK, general. I wasn’t aware of your military credentials. Russia is about 12 months away from completely exhausting all of its Soviet stockpiles of (tens of thousands of) vehicles and artillery, and their war economy is already unable to sustain production at replacement rates.

On the contrary, it’s only a matter of time.

[YZF]

Source? I thought it was the west that couldn't ramp up and is running out of stockpiles. I'll admit I'm an armchair general but I did serve so I have at least some minimal idea of what war looks like.

EDIT: Also not clear how long the US is going to keep supporting Ukraine now that Trump is in power so that's another factor.

[dralley]

>I thought it was the west that couldn't ramp up and is running out of stockpiles.

It's worth pointing out that Russia's "production" claims generally include refurbishment. When they say they produced 4 million artillery shells, that sometimes means they produced 400,000 artillery shells and refurbished 3.6 million artillery shells from deep storage.

[nradov]

I hope that the Trump administration will continue supporting Ukraine and not try to force them into an unfavorable temporary peace settlement, but the US isn't essential. Other NATO and EU countries are fully capable of keeping Ukraine in the fight, if they want to make it a priority. They might have to cut back some of their social spending and agricultural subsidies to afford it.

https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-s...

Russia will never completely run out of materiel, but they have already exhausted most of their stockpiles of good stuff. At this point they've been reduced to using refurbished armored vehicles built in the 1950s and modified civilian cars along parts of the front.

https://www.youtube.com/@CovertCabal/videos

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/01/19/russias-btr...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/12/24/a-pink-comp...

[cycrutchfield]

You can track Russia’s stockpiles through open source satellite imagery, here’s a recent video overview: https://youtu.be/TzR8BacYS6U

Ukraine benefits from being on defense, as the attrition rates are significantly in their favor. I’m not sure what will happen after Trump does whatever it is he’s going to do, but it is clear that Russia’s current trajectory is not sustainable beyond a year or so

[YZF]

I agree Ukraine benefits from being on the defense. The question is what are their chances of retaking their lost territory where they need to be on the offense? Russia has higher attrition rates but also has a larger population to recruit from.

I'm not seeing Russia just crumble away under Ukrainian assault. If that's the case how does Ukraine benefit from the continuation of the war?

I would love to see Ukraine kicking Russia out as an outcome but it seems incredibly unrealistic.

[nradov]

Ukraine can't achieve a battlefield victory but with foreign military aid they might be able to slow down the Russian advance long enough for the Russian economy to collapse. Russia is only able to keep their economy somewhat functional through fossil fuel exports. We can give Ukraine long-range missiles/drones and targeting assistance to wreck Russia's key export infrastructure (ports, pipelines, refineries, storage depots). And we can choke off much of Russia's shipping through sanctions and interference with their tanker "shadow fleet". There are also still billions in assets owned by Russian government entities, corporations, and citizens but held in Western countries so we can just straight up steal it all and hand everything over to Ukraine. There are no guarantees but as long as Ukraine is willing to keep fighting it's worth a try.

[cycrutchfield]

Ukraine doesn’t necessarily need to retake its lost territories by force. They only need to keep bleeding Russia out until the war becomes untenable for them. Russia loses like 1500+ soldiers and 100+ vehicles per day, just to move a line on a map a few meters. Their economy is hitting double digit inflation despite a 21% interest rate. Their recruitment efforts are running dry and they may have to resort to mobilization soon to continue to fill their ranks with more cannon fodder.

At a certain point they may have to come to the negotiating table, and the longer this drags out the less favorable their position will be.

[cies]

> it is clear that Russia’s current trajectory is not sustainable beyond a year or so

Those cheering for Ukraine have been saying this from the start. They have been lying again, and again, about everything... The Russian MoD has been on point, again and again. Why should I trust anything camp NATO/Ukraine says?

The reality on the battlefield is that NATO/Ukraine loses badly, while spending much/much/much more money. Donated money.

Sorry bro: it's a lost cause. The russians will be victorious again, fixing Europe's nazi problem again.

Everyone who teaches their kid "Bandera is my papa, Ukraine is my momma" is a nazi to me. And according to my research, that's a lot of the Ukrainian speaking Ukrainians.

[dragonwriter]

> The reality on the battlefield is that NATO/Ukraine loses badly,

NATO isn't even on the battlefield.

> while spending much/much/much more money.

Yes, western labor has more value per hour, so the $ value of the smaller share of western effort devoted to the support of Ukraine is much higher than the $ value of the much larger share of Russian effort.

> Donated money.

See, you have to decide on your narrative. If your narrative is that NATO is who your Russian buddies are fighting on the battlefield, then it isn't donated money. If your narrative is "donated money", then you have to drop the "NATO/Ukraine" description of the belligerent opposing Russia.

[cycrutchfield]

> The Russian MoD has been on point, again and again

lol, lmao even