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by portaouflop 520 days ago
We should begin to acknowledge that there is a non-zero chance for complete societal collapse in the next few decades.
2 comments

We should begin to acknowledge that there may be a near-zero chance of avoiding complete societal collapse in the next few decades.
> there may be a near-zero chance

You have two probability qualifiers next to each other. What is "may be" in this case? How should a reader read it?

Consider a disease like rabies. Right now there's a near-zero chance of survival to those who contract it. Let's say we discover a new mosquito variant which can spread rabies, whose population is multiplying exponentially.

Typically we might expect a disease which becomes pandemic to be survivable for some significant percentage of the population. Whereas here we might say that, regardless of how many resources we throw at rabies treatments, there may continue to be a near-zero chance of survival (because rabies had been remarkably untreatable so far).

It's a suggestion that perhaps we should temper optimism.

Ok, so now I understand what you meant.

Technically, you're right. May be there's no chance to fix it. But may be false vacuum will decay tomorrow. "may be" is not very useful here.

Is it probable that we're beyond the point of no return? I don't believe anyone can answer that with any certainty.

Note that even in the above example, a proper response might be to address the mosquito population or to begin initiatives to vaccinate as many people as possible against rabies. Likely a combination of both.

Of course it might be good to continue researching possible treatments for rabies as well, but there are other things which can be done to mitigate the impact.

I don't think climate change will be the only reason for societal collapse, if it happens. I think late-stage capitalism (which is also implicated in driving this climate change) is at least another significant factor.

I also don't pretend do know what societal collapse might look like, and what might come after. Societies don't seem to be immortal[1], and collapse has historically been inevitable. An immortal society is as unprecedented as human immortality, which isn't to say that either are strictly impossible, but that we should analyze both against historical data on statistics and symptoms which might indicate proximity to end of life.

Personally I believe the societal stressors which appear over the next few decades are significant enough that they represent a much larger chance of societal collapse than people seem to recognize. I guess we'll see.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Societal_collapse#Societal_lon...

In that case, why play along with society or do any research or investments beyond that time frame?
Because society collapsing doesn't mean that everyone will die; research and investments now might be critical for our children and possibly the long-term survival of the human race.
current society collapsing still gives room for survival - look at indigenous peoples in for example Australia - they survived an apocalypse and still are around.
Which part of the society, the Trump part, or the Musk part. Oh, they seem to be the same now. It’s so confusing.
In that case we'd better invest in weapons and find a way how to kill "the others" before they "kill us", since this will affect "our" chance of surviving much more than if we are able to "fight the climate change".
there's always been a non-zero chance for collapse: black death, ww2, cold war, covid, etc.