[gopalv]

> That he says LLMs make him more productive at all as a hands-on developer, especially around first drafts on a new idea, means a lot to me personally.

There is likely to be a great rift in how very talented people look at sharper tools.

I've seen the same division pop up with CNC machines, 3d printers, IDEs and now LLMs.

If you are good at doing something, you might find the new tool's output to be sub-par over what you can achieve yourself, but often the lower quality output comes much faster than you can generate.

That causes the people who are deliberate & precise about their process to hate the new tool completely - expressing in the actual code (or paint, or marks on wood) is much better than trying to explain it in a less precise language in the middle of it. The only exception I've seen is that engineering folks often use a blueprint & refine it on paper.

There's a double translation overhead which is wasteful if you don't need it.

If you have dealt with a new hire while being the senior of the pair, there's that familiar feeling of wanting to grab their keyboard instead of explaining how to build that regex - being able to do more things than you can explain or just having a higher bandwidth pipe into the actual task is a common sign of mastery.

The incrementalists on the other hand, tend to love the new tool as they tend to build 6 different things before picking what works the best, slowly iterating towards what they had in mind in the first place.

I got into this profession simply because I could Ctrl-Z to the previous step much more easily than my then favourite chemical engineering goals. In Chemistry, if you get a step wrong, you go to the start & start over. Plus even when things work, yield is just a pain there (prove it first, then you scale up ingredients etc).

Just from the name of sketch.dev, it appears that this author is of the 'sketch first & refine' model where the new tool just speeds up that loop of infinite refinement.

[liotier]

> If you are good at doing something, you might find the new tool's output to be sub-par over what you can achieve yourself, but often the lower quality output comes much faster than you can generate. That causes the people who are deliberate & precise about their process to hate the new tool completely

Wow, I've been there ! Years ago we dragged a GIS system kicking and screaming from its nascent era of a dozen ultrasharp dudes with the whole national fiber optics network in their head full of clever optimizations, to three thousand mostly clueless users churning out industrial scale spaghetti... The old hands wanted a dumb fast tool that does their bidding - they hated the slower wizard-assisted handholding, that turned out to be essential to the new population's productivity.

Command line vs. GUI again... Expressivity vs. discoverability, all the choices vs. don't make me think. Know your users !

[namaria]

This whole thing makes me think of that short story "The Machine Stops".

As we keep burrowing deeper and deeper into an overly complex system that allows people to get into parts of it without understanding the whole, we are edging closer to a situation where no one is left who can actually reason about the system and it starts to deteriorate beyond repair until it suddenly collapses.

[IanKerr]

We are so, so far beyond that point already. The complexity of the world economy is beyond any one mind to fully comprehend. The microcosm of building black-box LLMs that perform feats we don't understand is yet another instance of us building systems which may forever be beyond human understanding.

How is any human meant to understand a billion lines of code in a single codebase? How is any human meant to understand a world where there are potentially trillions of lines of code operating?

[namaria]

When your house is on fire and someone says "get out", certainly grabbing a jerrycan of gasoline and dousing yourself in fuel is worst than just getting out?

[harrall]

I believe it’s more that people hate trying new tools because they’ve already made their choice and made it their identity.

However, there are also people who love everything new and jump onto the latest hype too. They try new things but then immediately advocate it without merit.

Where are the sane people in the middle?

[dns_snek]

As an experienced software developer, I paid for ChatGPT for a couple of months, I trialed Gemini Pro for a couple of months, and I've used the current version of Claude.

I'd be happy if LLMs could produce working code as often and as quickly as the evangelist claim, but whenever I try to use LLM to work on my day to day tasks, I almost always walk away frustrated and disappointed - and most of my work is boring on technical merits, I'm not writing novel comp-sci algorithms or cryptography libraries.

Every time I say this, I'm painted as some luddite who just hates change when the reality is that no, current LLMs are just not fit for many of the purposes they're being evangelized for. I'd love nothing more than to be a 2x developer on my side projects, but it just hasn't happened and it's not for the lack of trying or open mindedness.

edit: I've never actually seen any LLM-driven developers work in real time. Are there any live coding channels that could convince the skeptics what we're missing out on something revolutionary?

[davepeck]

I see less "painting as a luddite" in response to statements like this, and more... surprise. Mild skepticism, perhaps!

Your experience diverges from that of other experienced devs who have used the same tools, on probably similar projects, and reached different conclusions.

That includes me, for what it's worth. I'm a graybeard whose current work is primarily cloud data pipelines that end in fullstack web. Like most devs who have fully embraced LLMs, I don't think they are a magical panacea. But I've found many cases where they're unquestionably an accelerant -- more than enough to justify the cost.

I don't mean to say your conclusions are wrong. There seems to be a bimodal distribution amongst devs. I suspect there's something about _how_ these tools are used by each dev, and in the specific circumstances/codebases/social contexts, that leads to quite different outcomes. I would love to read a better investigation of this.

[efnx]

I think it also depends on _what_ the domain is, and also to a certain degree the tools / stack you use. LLMs aren’t coherent or correct when working on novel problems, novel domains or using novel tools.

They’re great for doing something that has been done before, but their hallucinations are wildly incorrect when novelty is at play - and I’ll add they’re always very authoritative! I’m glad my languages of choice have a compiler!

[jpc0]

My recent example for where its helpful.

Pretty nice at autocomplete. Like writing json tags in go structs. Can just autocomplete that's stuff for me no problem, it saved me seconds per line, seconds I tell you.

It's stupid as well... Autofilled a function, looks correct. Reread it 10 minutes later and well... Minor mistake that would have caused a crash at runtime. It looked correct but in reality it just didn't have enough context ( the context is in an external doc on my second screen ... ) and there was no way it would ever have guessed the correct code.

It took me longer to figure out why the code looked wrong than if I had just typed it myself.

Did it speed up my workflow on code I could have given a junior to write? Not really, but some parts were quicker while other were slower.

And imagine if that code bad crashed in production next week instead of right now while the whole context is still in my head. Maybe that would be hours of debugging time...

Maybe as parent said, for a domain where you are braking new ground, it can generate some interesting ideas you wouldn't have thought about. Like a stupid pair that can get you out if a local manima but in general doesn't help much it can be a significant help.

But then again you could do what has been done for decades and speak to another human about the problem, at least they may have signed the same NDA as you...

[davepeck]

Yeah, absolutely.

LLMs work best for code when both (a) there's sufficient relevant training data aka we're not doing something particularly novel and (b) there's sufficient context from the current codebase to pick up expected patterns, the peculiarities of the domain models, etc.

Drop (a) and get comical hallucinations; drop (b) and quickly find that LLMs are deeply mediocre at top-level architectural and framework/library choices.

Perhaps there's also a (c) related to precision. You can write code to issue a SQL query and return JSON from an API endpoint in multiple just-fine ways. Misplace a pthread_mutex_lock, however, and you're in trouble. I certainly don't trust LLMs to get things like this right!

(It's worth mentioning that "novelty" is a tough concept in the context of LLM training data. For instance, maybe nobody has implemented a font rasterizer in Rust before, but plenty of people have written font rasterizers and plenty of others have written Rust; LLMs seem quite good at synthesizing the two.)

[holoduke]

Yesterday i wanted to understand what a team was doing in a go project. I have never really touched go before. I do understand software, because I develop for plus 20 years. But chatgpt was perfectly able to give me a summary on how the implementation worked. Gave me examples and suggestions. And within a day fulltime pasting code and asking question i had a good understanding of the codebase. It would have be a lot more difficult with only google.

[twelve40]

how often do you get to learn an unfamiliar language? is it something you need to do every day? so this use case, did it save you much time overall?

[edanm]

Totally respect your position, given that you actually tried the tool and found it didn't work for you. That said, one valid explanation is that the tool isn't good for what you're trying to achieve. But an alternative explanation is that you haven't learned how to use the tool effectively.

You seem open to this possibility, since you ask:

> I've never actually seen any LLM-driven developers work in real time. Are there any live coding channels that could convince the skeptics what we're missing out on something revolutionary?

I don't know many yet, but Steve Yegge, a fairly famous developer in his own right, has been talking about this for the last few months, and has walked a few people through his "Chat Oriented Programming" (CHOP) ideas. I believe if you search for that phrase, you'll find a few videos, some from him and some from others. Can't guarantee they're all quality videos, though anything Steve himself does is interesting, IMO.

[NoOn3]

I have very similar experience. For me LLM are good at explaining someone else's complex code, but for some reason they don't help me write new code well. I would also like to see any LLM-driven developers work in real time.

[harrall]

You're the middle ground I was talking about. You tried it. You know where it works and where it doesn't.

I've used LLM to generate code samples and my IDE (IntelliJ) uses an LLM for auto-suggestions. That's mostly about it for me.

[alightsoul]

I have, in person. Their code requires a lot of cleanup and then there's the AI pit of death they often are not able to crawl out of due to... Mostly language differences. They don't know enough English to look stuff up and figure out how to fix things. Programming resources in other languages are pretty much non-existent

[HappMacDonald]

My experience thus far is that LLMs can be quite good at:

* Information lookup

-- when search engines are enshittified and bogged down by SEO spam and when it's difficult to transform a natural language request into a genuinely unique set of search keywords

-- Search-enabled LLMs have the most up to date reach in these circumstances but even static LLMs can work in a pinch when you're searching for info that's probably well represented in their training set before their knowledge cutoff

* Creatively exploring a vaguely defined problem space

-- Especially when one's own head feels like it's too full of lead to think of anything novel

-- Watch out to make sure the wording of your request doesn't bend the LLM too far into a stale direction. For example naming an example can make them tunnel vision onto that example vs considering alternatives to it.

* Pretending to be Stack Exchange

-- EG, the types of questions one might pose on SE one can pose to an LLM and get instant answers, with less criticism for having asked the question in the first place (though Claude is apparently not above gently checking in if one is encountering an X Y problem) and often the LLM's hallucination rate is no worse than that of other SE users

* Shortcut into documentation for tools with either thin or difficult to navigate docs

-- While one must always fact-check the LLM, doing so is usually quicker in this instance than fishing online for which facts to even check

-- This is most effective for tools where tons of people do seem to already know how the tool works (vs tools nobody has ever heard of) but it's just not clear how they learned that.

* Working examples to ice-break a start of project

* Simple automation scripts with few moving parts, especially when one is particular about the goal and the constraints

-- Online one might find example scripts that almost meet your needs but always fail to meet them in some fashion that's irritating to figure out how to coral back into your problem domain

-- LLMs have deep experience with tools and with short snippets of coherent code, so their success rate on utility scripts are much higher than on "portions of complex larger projects".

[wvenable]

> Where are the sane people in the middle?

They are the quiet ones.

[jrockway]

Yup! I don't have a lot to say about LLMs for coding. There are places where I'm certain they're useful and that's where I use them. I don't think "generate a react app from scratch" helps me, but things like "take a CPU profile and write it to /tmp/pprof.out" have worked well. I know how to do the latter, but would need to look at the docs for the exact function name to call, and the LLM just knows and checks the error on opening the file and all that tedium. It's helpful.

At my last job I spent a lot of time on cleanups and refactoring and never got the LLM to help me in any way. This is the thing that I try every few months and see what's changed, because one day it will be able to do the tedious things I need to get done and spare me the tedium.

Something I should try again is having the LLM follow a spec and see how it does. A long time ago I wrote some code to handle HTTP conditional requests. I pasted the standard into my code, and wrote each chunk of code in the same order as the spec. I bet the LLM could just do that for me; not a lot of knowledge of code outside that file was required, so you don't need many tokens of context to get a good result. But alas the code is already written and works. Maybe if I tried doing that today the LLM would just paste in the code I already wrote and it was trained on ;)

[evilfred]

Middle Ground Fallacy

[harrall]

Fallacy fallacy

[goatlover]

The middle ground between hyping the new tech and being completely skeptical about it is usually right. New tech is usually not everything it's hyped up to be, but also usually not completely useless or bad for society. It's likely we're not about to usher in the singularity or doom society, but LLMs are useful enough to stick around in various tools. Also it's probably the case that a percentage of they hype is driven by wanting funding.

[oblio]

> New tech is usually not everything it's hyped up to be, but also usually not completely useless or bad for society.

Except for cryptocurrencies (at least their ratio of investments to output) :-p

[numpad0]

I can't relate to this comment at all. Doesn't feel like what's said in GP either.

IMO, LLMs are super fast predictive input and hallucinatory unzip; files to be decompressed don't have to exist yet, but input has to be extremely deliberate and precise.

You have to have a valid formula that gives the resultant array that don't require no more than 100 IQ to comprehend, and then they unroll it for you into the whole code.

They don't reward trial and error that much. They don't seem to help outsiders like 3D printers did, either. It is indeed a discriminatory tool as in it mistreats amateurs.

And, by the way, it's also increasingly obvious to me that assuming pro-AI posture more than what you would from purely rational and utilitarian standpoint triggers a unique mode of insanity in humans. People seem to contract a lot of negativity doing it. Don't do that.

[jprete]

This is a good characterization. I'm precision-driven and know what I need to do at any low level. It's the high-level definition that is uncertain. So it doesn't really help to produce a dozen prototypes of an idea and pick one, nor does it help to fill in function definitions.

[tikkun]

Intersting.

So engineers that like to iterate and explore are more likely to like LLMs.

Whereas engineers that like have a more rigid specific process are more likely to dislike LLMs.

[godelski]

I frequently iterate and explore when writing code. Code gets written multiple times before being merged. Yet, I still haven't found LLMs to be helpful in that way. The author gives "autocomplete", "search", and "chat-driven programming" as 3 paradigms. I get the most out of search (though a lot of this is due to the decreasing value of Google), autocomplete is pretty weak to me especially as I macro or just use contextual complete, and I've failed miserably at chat-driven programming on every attempt. I spend more time debugging the AI than it would to debug myself. Albeit it __feels__ faster because I'm doing more typing + waiting rather than continuous thinking (but the latter has extra benefits).

[erosivesoul]

FWIW I find LLMs almost useless for writing novel code. Like it can spit out a serviceable UUID generator when I need it, but try writing something with more than a layer or two of recursion and it gets confused. I turn copilot on for boilerplate and off for solving new problems.

[travisporter]

> I got into this profession simply because I could Ctrl-Z to the previous step much more easily than my then favourite chemical engineering goals.

That is interesting. Asking as a complete ignoramus - is there not a way to do this now? Like start off with a 100 of reagent and at every step use a bit and discard if wrong

[ssivark]

But for every step that turns out to be "correct" you now have to go back and redo that in your held-out sample anyways. So it's not like you get to save on repeating the work -- IIUC you just changed it from depth-first execution order to breadth-first execution order.

[Vampiero]

> International Islamic University Chittagong

??? What's up with native English speakers and random acronyms of stuff that isn't said that often? YMMV, IIUC, IANAL, YSK... Just say it and save everyone else a google search.

[tmtvl]

I'm not a native English speaker, but IIUC is clearly 'If I Understand Correctly'. If you look at the context it's often fairly easy to figure out what an initialism means. I mean even I can usually deduce the meaning and I'm barely intelligent enough to qualify as 'sentient'.

[HappMacDonald]

So just to make sure I'm on the same page: you're bemoaning how commonly people abbreviate uncommon sayings?

[Vampiero]

I'm bemoaning the fact that I have to google random acronyms every time an American wants to say the most basic shit as if everyone on the internet knows their slang and weird four letter abbreviations

And googling those acronyms usually returns unrelated shit unless you go specifically to urban dictionary

And then it's "If I understand correctly". Oh. Of course. He couldn't be arsed to type that

[amenhotep]

FWIW IMO YTA

[numpad0]

That likely ends up with 100 failed results all attributed to the same set of causes

[throwaway4aday]

Not so sure about those examples and pairing with the idea of quick and dirty work.

[dboreham]

Calculators vs slide rules.