[Allybag]

I am a professional automated sports gambler, and I win basically every day, and the handful of losing days I have per quarter are significantly smaller than the average daily win.

If you place enough bets (I make about 15k bets each day that are matched) that have a positive expected value your chances of a losing day become pretty low.

For example, I had a losing day on Christmas Day, but was only able to place about 500 bets as it was such a big holiday that there were almost no events.

[wodenokoto]

How do you place so many? When you read about small fish manually betting on sports sites they get kicked off when winning too much.

[Allybag]

It’s automated, I bet on a betting exchange which has an API, so the bets get placed without any input from me.

As it’s a betting exchange they don’t care if you win or lose as you aren’t winning money from them, but they start to take steeper cuts of your profits if you’re a regular winner above some threshold that a random punter is very unlikely to hit.

[anoncow]

Teach me your ways.

[le-mark]

These guys never talk about the details. Either they’re LARPing or there’s something to it. “Betting exchange” is your clue. I’ve followed this thread before. Apparently the exchanges are mostly in Asia and allow people to buy and sell bets. So presumably this person is placing bets well before the date the event occurs and using them to arbitrage the result as the event nears. This is due to line movement up to the event. To participate in this you have to use btc/crypto and risk being ripped off with no legal recourse. Also presumably there’s a system around what bet to place when. They never talk about that.

[Allybag]

To give some details, the main betting exchange I use is Betfair, a UK betting company part of the same group that own Fanduel, and I place bets for or against outcomes in the last half an hour before the start. For example, you can back a team to win meaning you make a certain amount if the team wins, but you can also lay a team, meaning that if that team doesn’t win (another team wins or it’s a draw) you win that bet, with a payout of inverse the odds. There is no crypto involved, just GBP, and Betfair is a multibillion dollar company paying taxes and subject to the law and the UK regulating bodies. I have a model to predict short term movement in the odds, which is not amazing but enough better than random that it can overcome the fees and spread between the back and lay odds and be profitable.

Any further questions?

[anoncow]

Thanks for answering. What are your overall monthly earnings in percentage? 0.5%, 1%? Is this too high or too low?

[Allybag]

If you mean as a percentage of my investment, it’s about 1000%, but I can’t scale up further, so it doesn’t grow exponentially. If I increased my stake tenfold I wouldn’t be making more bets or more money. It’s like with market makers or Renaissance Technology, I’m limited by the market opportunity so the roi or sharpe ratio or whatever don’t really make sense.

[le-mark]

Concretely the “market opportunity” is volatility in odds movement for a particular event? Or amount of bets on either side of an event?

Too bad no exchanges are available from the US. Has anyone gotten around this wit vpn or some such?

[refulgentis]

Not even wrong, in the Pauli sense.

> allow people to buy and sell bets.

Can't sell - you can buy, or find a counterparty. The exchange part is finding a counterparty.

> placing bets well before the date the event occurs and using them to arbitrage the result as the event nears.

Narrowly correct -- we could, of course, offset our X wins bet at $100 with a Y wins bet for $20. The implication is this is done by selling bets, which as mentioned above, isn't a thing in this world.

Are there some websites where this can be done? yes.

Is it widespread? No.

Is it implied by the phrase betting exchange? No.

The implication with betting exchange is "you're not betting against us, we're not making lines, we're just matching you up with a counterparty, so our incentive structure is aligned with you, we'll build an API even. also fees are much lower, its a pure rake"

> you have to use btc/crypto and risk being ripped off with no legal recourse

Sites that only take crypto do exist, but its certainly not a given or predominant.

> Also presumably there’s a system around what bet to place when. They never talk about that.

This is confusing because:

- you spelled out a system, intuitively, that most people would grok instantly (arbitrage on the line)

- "presumably" is doing 0 work, besides implying there's some hidden secret: any system involved in placing bets would have to provide information on what bet to place. :)

Generally, I don't think it's anyones job to spell out how to pull off consistent net-positive money machine, and it's quite odd to not only want it, but expect it.

[le-mark]

Thanks for the corrections; more info to refine my understanding. In a way it seems you are the book maker and the “exchange” is the platform that lets you do it (matches bettors).

[Someone]

I don’t know their ways, but I expect there’s a lot of emotion in sports betting that can be exploited (bookmakers will not purely optimize for expected profit, but also want lower variance in their profits). If so, betting against clubs in rich countries where betting is popular is the better option.

Whether it beats the bookmaker’s margin I wouldn’t know.

[FergusArgyll]

Always bet against the Jets

You're welcome

[MaxikCZ]

And me please, ill give you some portion of my profits :P

[sourcepluck]

Betfair, or somewhere else, if I may ask?

[Allybag]

Yep, atm exclusively on Betfair but trying to expand.

[sourcepluck]

I've probably 10 more questions, but you've already shared generously in a couple of other comments. Thanks for that. I've bookmarked, and will investigate. Best of luck with it