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by refulgentis 534 days ago
Not even wrong, in the Pauli sense.

> allow people to buy and sell bets.

Can't sell - you can buy, or find a counterparty. The exchange part is finding a counterparty.

> placing bets well before the date the event occurs and using them to arbitrage the result as the event nears.

Narrowly correct -- we could, of course, offset our X wins bet at $100 with a Y wins bet for $20. The implication is this is done by selling bets, which as mentioned above, isn't a thing in this world.

Are there some websites where this can be done? yes.

Is it widespread? No.

Is it implied by the phrase betting exchange? No.

The implication with betting exchange is "you're not betting against us, we're not making lines, we're just matching you up with a counterparty, so our incentive structure is aligned with you, we'll build an API even. also fees are much lower, its a pure rake"

> you have to use btc/crypto and risk being ripped off with no legal recourse

Sites that only take crypto do exist, but its certainly not a given or predominant.

> Also presumably there’s a system around what bet to place when. They never talk about that.

This is confusing because:

- you spelled out a system, intuitively, that most people would grok instantly (arbitrage on the line)

- "presumably" is doing 0 work, besides implying there's some hidden secret: any system involved in placing bets would have to provide information on what bet to place. :)

Generally, I don't think it's anyones job to spell out how to pull off consistent net-positive money machine, and it's quite odd to not only want it, but expect it.

1 comments

Thanks for the corrections; more info to refine my understanding. In a way it seems you are the book maker and the “exchange” is the platform that lets you do it (matches bettors).