[admissionsguy]

Yeah, prediction markets are better for this. With time you build an incontrovertible track record of getting things right.

On the other hand, this kind of service could be better adapted to the social reality. A prediction market can reveal the "wrong" people to be right, whereas this would probably be used more by people who are already well known and expected to be right. By only revealing correct predictions, people considered smart would not risk their status.

Looking at patio11's record on Manifold, for example, you will see that he is quite clueless about the world. Had he used tolduvault instead, he would have continued to appear smart.

[Retr0id]

> Looking at patio11's record on Manifold, for example, you will see that he is quite clueless about the world

I wouldn't say that, necessarily. It's hard to tell the difference between a good predictor who got unlucky vs a bad predictor who got lucky, at a glance (it's also hard to discern which bets were placed "for fun" vs as a rational choice).

[ttyprintk]

Activity on Polymarket is public, but (for now) topics are manually moderated. Prediction markets do the important step of spelling out exactly how to settle these claims.