[bumby]

I think we disagree that soil is fungible for growing crops. Even if I were to steelman your stance, it still requires considerable inputs to do so. All of this ends up making food cost more.

Similarly, I think making HFCS more expensive isn't likely to make foods less calorically dense. What it will do is make them more expensive as manufacturers put use more expensive alternatives.

I do think your ethanol stance is a circular argument. The US produces a lot of ethanol because of the subsidies, so it doesn't make sense to point to that production level as a reason to get rid of subsidies. Fracking is a good counterpoint, but also a politically contentious one if your stance is that the US should ramp up fracking to offset agricultural subsidies.

I certainly agree that subsidies have inertia that's hard to overcome. (My favorite example is the alpaca subsidy that was implemented for warm-weather clothing for the Korean War that stayed on the books until the 1990s). I also agree they need to be tailored to the current environment.

The bulk of your point seems to be we can get rid of subsidies in exchange for higher and less stable food prices. Historically, our food is quite cheap today but I find the idea that the proposed solution to obesity is to make food more expensive not very palatable (ha). I personally don't think that is a good tradeoff because my position is it's calories and not HFCS that is the largest contributor to the obesity problem. My OP was not saying "keep subsidies" but rather "be aware of the systemic effects of getting rid of subsidies". I think there are lots of arguments to get rid of corn subsidies, but I find the obesity one pretty weak. So the simple solution of "just get rid of subsidies" will create all these negative consequences that need to be managed for something that isn't likely to move the needle much on obesity. That doesn't seem like a great tradeoff and I'd label it as one of those simple solutions that sounds great as a sound byte but isn't particularly pragmatic. Going back to the original point, if your goal is to make food more expensive to curb obesity, there are probably more straightforward and effective ways of doing so that don't have all those additional factors.

The only way that take makes sense to me is if you think there is something unique about HFCS that leads to obesity compared to other sweeteners when controlled for calories. I don't think the science supports this.

[slothtrop]

> I think we disagree that soil is fungible for growing crops. Even if I were to steelman your stance, it still requires considerable inputs to do so. All of this ends up making food cost more.

To transition, yes. This is an upfront cost that can be alleviated, food does not need to cost more after-the-fact. Trump haphazardly paid off farmers in his previous tenure, it happens.

> Similarly, I think making HFCS more expensive isn't likely to make foods less calorically dense. What it will do is make them more expensive as manufacturers put use more expensive alternatives.

That is the point, I think. Those particular foods are calorie-dense.

> so it doesn't make sense to point to that production level as a reason to get rid of subsidies.

Unless you think production levels would fall to pathetic levels on the global stage, and that this production-level is essential, I don't see why not.

> I find the idea that the proposed solution to obesity is to make food more expensive not very palatable (ha).

Specific foods, to be clear. Packaged products with added sugar would be affected. Meat does not have to be if the new policies account for it.

> it's calories and not HFCS that is the largest contributor to the obesity problem

non-satiating (nil fiber + protein) caloric-dense foods facilitate higher calorie consumption. Sugar is not the only vehicle for this, but it's part of the equation. Sugary drinks deliver lots of calories for very little satiety, for example. Other vectors are flour + fat + salt, fried foods.

I agree that "just get rid of subsidies" can be overly simplistic, but it belongs in the conversation. The point is that cheap and highly-available highly-promoted junk food creates a perverse incentive for consumers to eat more of it at the expense of their health. It's everywhere, including school cafeterias.

Any large-scale national solution invariably entails some kind of deterrence. Either junk food costs more, or is less available, or healthier alternatives are actively promoted and cheaper ($$$, I would throw education in this category too). Pick your poison.

Ostensibly, cutting spending would be more popular with voters in general than increasing taxes and spending. Also, falling tobacco smoking rates are a major success story which can be attributed primarily to sin tax (high prices), eliminating advertisement, and educating the masses.

[bumby]

>Unless you think production levels would fall to pathetic levels on the global stage, and that this production-level is essential, I don't see why not.

A few reasons: 1) again, it's partly a national security issue. Under crisis, "global supply" is a concern; just ask Germany after trying to turn away from Russian fuel supply 2) Infrastructure has a relatively large lead time; we can't just ramp up production on a whim. 3) It's odd that you point to global supply as the rationale while simultaneously advocating the largest global supplier severely reduce production. Again, that feels like circular logic. Ie "The US doesn't need to produce ethanol because the world has so much ethanol production." No, the world has so much ethanol production because the US produces a disproportionate amount. Remove the latter and the argument doesn't hold.

I don't think we disagree that making food more expensive can change eating habits. I think we disagree on the most effective vehicle for that.

Look at it this way: we both seem to agree that calories are the problem. Your argument hinges on sweeteners being a proxy for calories, and HFCS being a proxy for sweeteners, and agricultural corn being a proxy for HFCS. You're targeting something that is three levels of abstraction away from what you actually care about. My position is that it makes more sense to target what you're actually after: calories.

If your stance is getting rid of corn subsidies is administratively simple compared to targeting calories, I think I disagree mainly because of the administrative burden of all the other effects we've discussed.

I don't disagree that deterrence is part of an overall strategy. I'm simply pointing out that one should be wary of the tradeoffs. Policy is about prioritizing, and IMO there are likely more pragmatic approaches with less tradeoffs that need to be managed.

[slothtrop]

I'm not convinced of the strategic importance of ethanol in the grand scheme; the US produces more of it because the subsidy creates that incentive. Incentive structures can change, entrenchment just makes it less politically viable.

> You're targeting something that is three levels of abstraction away from what you actually care about. My position is that it makes more sense to target what you're actually after: calories.

It's not abstracted away as healthy eating is concerned. Overconsumption is downstream.

You haven't elucidated how you'd merely target calories through policy, but leaving that aside, a) by default people do not count calories nor would they as a measure to protect against weight-gain, b) it's redundant given a whole-foods diet, no one becomes obese from too much broccoli, chicken breast and lentils, c) for those looking to lose weight, mere calorie counting absent leveraging satiating foods and eschewing junk is woefully ineffective in practice, because of lack of sustainability. Dieters typically do lose some weight, then gain it back. Not only is it difficult to adhere to, it's difficult to eyeball calories on a plate, particularly when they're processed foods, such that they'd have to weigh everything on a scale indefinitely.

Encouraging healthier eating patterns solves several problems at once. It protects against overconsumption, and against disease, which would lessen a burden on the healthcare system. That seems quite pragmatic to me. What's at stake is certain corporations stand to make less money, and corn farmers sell less.

Whether through change in diet patterns or "just eating less" as you might posit, if on the national scale people did end up consuming fewer calories and lose weight, then they'd more than likely consume less sugar/HFCS. The end result is still that a healthier populace == selling less corn. We can't discount any and all policy on the conceit that inconveniencing corn farmers is not acceptable.

[bumby]

>I'm not convinced of the strategic importance of ethanol in the grand scheme; the US produces more of it because the subsidy creates that incentive.

Yes, that's the intent. Whenever you subsidize something, you get more of it. If you're looking for strategic rationale, the US relies much more on gasoline than, say, the EU. Couple that with the fact that US strategic oil reserves are at the lowest levels in 40 years, that only leaves about a month of fuel in the reserve at current usage. Meaning, there is a strategic need to have the infrastructure in place to supplement fuel supply if needed. Even if we don't need it now, the lead time for building out infrastructure is long enough that is makes sense to have slack capacity in place now.

>It's not abstracted away as healthy eating is concerned. Overconsumption is downstream.

Corn subsidies are abstracted away. They're related, but not directly considering the other uses of corn. Irrespective of that point, I think we may have lost the thread here. We don't seem to disagree on the central premise that overconsumption of calories is the root issue. The original claim was that a sugar tax would help remedy this issue. The counter-claim was that removing corn subsidies would be a better approach than a sugar tax.

My point is that the counter-claim is lacking nuance, and ignores all the second order effects. I'm not against removing subsidies, but I would want someone to acknowledge how they would mitigate the negative knock-on effects. What you've presented is a bit hand-wavy for my taste, implying we can just swap this crop for that and ignore concerns related to strategic fuel, agricultural stability, and costs. In the context of all those secondary and tertiary impacts, it seems like a direct tax (like a sugar tax) is preferential. I probably wouldn't limit it to just a sugar tax though, and would look to target other food that leads to overconsumption (including those that aren't disproportionately affecting lower socio-economic groups), and ideally making healthier choices less expensive if we're making the others more costly.

[lanfeust6]

My point is that every approach has second-order effects, there's no free lunch. If you pick one approach, then you're dealing with the externalities.

> In the context of all those secondary and tertiary impacts, it seems like a direct tax (like a sugar tax) is preferential

Not to voters. Taxes are unpopular, ending a subsidy to a small powerful cohort would be relatively more popular (in terms of messaging I mean, the end result would still be that consumers pay more for sugar, but of course the govt spending less frees up spending for other things). However, farmer support is right-coded which would lead to opposition by right-wing pundits and media.

It's a toss-up. A tax could be effective, but I don't agree that it's necessarily more viable or palatable. It's probably less-so. Hence I would pitch ending or curbing the subsidy.

[bumby]

We agree that it's always about tradeoffs. I just think there are probably more complex and less transparent (and potentially negative) tradeoffs with ending subsidies if the goal is reducing obesity. It doesn't mean subsidies are good, but just that they are more loosely aligned with obesity than you let on.

I just don't see how it's a more effective strategy given the fact that it's a much more complicated apparatus to do the same thing (raise prices on food). Your position seems to be, stated differently, that higher prices lead to a deterrent to overconsumption and that reducing subsidies is the best way to increase prices. Logically, I can’t find a way that is a better mechanism than affecting prices directly and in a more targeted manner with less tangential effects. It reads to me as a way to find a rationale to go after a particular policy one doesn't like, rather than being focused on the problem at hand (obesity).