[sydd]

Russia is putting everything it has to the Ukrainian front since 2.5 years and signs of exhaustion are clearly visible. They have lived up their Soviet tank reserves, are offering astronomical amounts of money for soldiers, are using north Korean ammunition, huge inflation etc

[TheAlchemist]

That's what I'm thinking too. But if that's true, it means Ukraine has a real fighting chance to put them on their knees.

In any case, this seems like a major loss for Russia.

[postingawayonhn]

> it means Ukraine has a real fighting chance to put them on their knees.

Yes, and this point has been obvious to many for the last two years.

The problem has been the west drip feeding aid into the largest war since WW2. We actually have to define the objective as reclaiming all Ukranian territory (at least to the pre-2022 borders) and supply them appropriately. It might be expensive in the short-term but we can afford it, can seize the $300B of Russian assets, and will be able to reduce our defensive forces in the future use to the reduced Russian threat.

The problem now is that we may have run out of time with Ukraine experiencing significant manpower issues. They could mobilise a lot more people, but that will mean women and younger men (currently only 25+) from a generation that is already very thin.

We can ask Ukraine to do this, but we they will need an ironclad commitment that we will supply them with everything they ask for.

[fooker]

The purpose of the drip feeding is, unfortunately, to get Russia closer to a total collapse rather than a quick loss for them to retreat and build up their strength again for the next 20ish years to repeat it.

It’s not ideal for Ukraine right now.

[postingawayonhn]

I have heard this argument before, but I'm not particularly convinced.

Either way pretty much all their pre-war modern equipment has already been destroyed. Now they're fighting with really old stuff like T-55s pulled from storage, newly manufactured equipment, or whatever North Korea thinks it can spare.

[brabel]

Your impression of Russia's war capabilities is vastly mistaken.

"According to Joseph Fitsanakis, professor of intelligence and security studies at Coastal Carolina University, “Russian military production is currently outpacing that of the US and all of NATO member states combined. This may be hard to believe, but Russia is obligated to do it if it is going to outpace the support given to Ukraine."

Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/2/russia-races-ahead-...

[fardo]

It shouldn’t be surprising that a country with a war economy has a higher first derivative at producing material, the question of import is

1. What is the difference between absolute quantities comparing against all relevant players,

2. How long would it take to bridge the gap at current production rates, and

3. Can that rate of production be sustained long enough for it to alter any fundamentals?

The point to rebut isn’t that Russia is making more, it’s whether they can continue to do so ongoingly before Ukrainian advances, regime falter or economic collapse, US/China step-in, or internal unrest will dramatically weaken or make the current Russian negotiating position untenable.

[KptMarchewa]

Their "production" includes restoring stuff from the soviet equipment bases. When they make stuff from scratch, they are as much drip-feeding as west is, or even less - for example they make 6-8 Su-34s a year, while Lockmart is making 156 F-35s a year.

[postingawayonhn]

I partly agree, in that by drip feeding Ukraine supplies we have given Russia time to build up their production rates. And my earlier comment was disputing the idea that drip feeing the supplies was some kind of intentional strategy.

With regards to the broader claim that Russian production is outpacing that of the west. Yes, with artillery shells that's probably true, though we are continuing to ramp production. There aren't really any other areas though where a combination of western production + stock drawdowns couldn't supply Ukraine with greater quantities of material.

[fooker]

Yes. Given their fall in Syria one might assume they are getting close to a breaking point. But it’s difficult to know for sure as they lie at every step of the process, even to themselves.

[hollerith]

Assad's fall doesn't signify much because we should expect Moscow to prioritize its own backyard.

[Gud]

This is giving too much credit to the competence of the same political leadership that has spent the last 30 years dismantling the European war machine(that was pretty solid up until the mid 90s) while Russia and China has been arming themselves to the teeth.

[jakjak123]

I concur, the slow drip feeding is adequately explained by coming from a place of war ineptitude and domestic priorities rather than a conscious strategy.

[Etherlord87]

I agree with this. russia is being lured into continued commitment by giving it a chance. I'm unusually impressed with how American intelligence played russia in this conflict. Of course there's another reason: russia is a nuclear power, and even though everyone seems used to its threats and makes nothing of it, a nuclear war is an absolutely terrible threat, possibly wiping entire humanity if it fails to endure nuclear winter. As a result, America/NATO is doing a dance, where it waits for russia to do something morally wrong, then respond to it with escalation, ready to criticize and sanction on moral grounds all russia's allies if they decide to respond with (political) support to russia. We're quite successful in my opinion, the escalation of the west is validated throughout the world, and the response to it on the russia's side wouldn't be, and would result in stronger sanctions.

Had all the escalations of the recent 2 years be condensed to the first month of war, BRICS (and not only, e.g. the pope was quite supportive of russia, not sure if he still is) could unite and coordinate a response, and the west could possibly lose the war in the political sense, kind of like Israel lost it. I'm not putting an equal sign between Israel and Ukraine, but who would predict a few years ago common harsh criticisms against Israel in mainstream TV?

[tim333]

Israel and Ukraine are rather different in that it is hard to have much sympathy for Russia as they are the ones who chose to invade and they could go home any time they get fed up. The palestinians don't have that option.

Personally I think the west should have been firmer early on that the Russian invasion was unacceptable and they should go or be forced out. Instead they were kind of wishy washy.

[refulgentis]

> The purpose of the drip feeding is, unfortunately,

Absolutely not, it's not intentional.

- Suddenly, the world defense base needed to get on up to a level to match the world's 5th largest army, with all its stockpiles -- regardless of if its just lil ol Ukraine, Russia is putting its full effort in.

- Politics in US delayed it several months, I can't recall the exact number, but it was at least 6.

[fooker]

The war has been going on for a bit more than a thousand days now.

Your points would have been valid maybe one year into the war. Unless you’re suggesting the US military industrial complex takes three years to respond.

[walterlw]

Quick reminder that Russia first invaded Ukraine in 2014, before that they invaded Georgia and before that they took Chechnia. And yet even now the popular belief in the West is that the war in Ukraine will be the end of it and that some sort of a peace deal can hold.

[sabbaticaldev]

world defense base? Like the baseball World series?

[thunky]

> We can ask Ukraine to do this, but we they will need an ironclad commitment that we will supply them with everything they ask for

Sounds like a good way to escalate the war.

[programjames]

Something I've always been confused about is where are these Russian assets to seize? Are there just yachts sitting off the coast of Ukraine? Russian investments in businesses? Or, would it come after a peace deal where the Russian government pays reparations for the war?

[philwelch]

Is Ukraine actually the largest war since WW2? Is it bigger than the Second Congo War?

[stogot]

In terms of manpower, weapon types, domains of warfare, quantity of equipment, global impact, and national security implications-Ukraine is the largest.

In total violent deaths, 2nd Congo is worse. Let’s hope the war ends before that happens again

[theGnuMe]

Ukraine is out of time because Trump was re-elected. Only Europe can save them now and that will put Europe at odds with Putin/Trump.

[netsharc]

But Trump winning means Zelenskyy can scale down his ambitions (about reclaiming all of Ukranian territory) and not lose face, "well, the #####s reelected that Putin-fan in USA, so this is the best we can get now.", and conveniently for Putin it's also a way to get out of the expected walk into the Kyiv-Park that turned out into 3 years of quagmire: he can say "The goal all along was to secure Crimea and access to the Black Sea, get out the миссия выполнена banner!".

[throw0101d]

> That's what I'm thinking too. But if that's true, it means Ukraine has a real fighting chance to put them on their knees.

Which may depend on continued US support from the newly elected administration.

[Dah00n]

I mostly depend on manpower. Which they are lacking.

[dyauspitr]

Maybe but our Putin loving president might do everything he can to help Russia once he’s in power this January.

[oldpersonintx]

Ukraine is also exhausted

its time for America to stop pushing Ukrainians into the firing line

[scott_w]

[flagged]

[instig007]

[flagged]

[severino]

Are you sure about that? When Russia annexed Crimea firing a couple of shots in 2014, we couldn't see all that horror you talk about, so I don't think it would be what would happen. In fact, there's a lot of people in Eastern Ukraine that has been hoping for Russia to start this military operation.

OTOH, we have records of killings and rapes by American military personnel in Iraq when the US invaded the country back in 2003. And they did that unimpeded. Maybe you supported that invasion.

[dralley]

>In fact, there's a lot of people in Eastern Ukraine that has been hoping for Russia to start this military operation.

There were some, perhaps 1% to 2% of the population. There was not "a lot" and there never was.

[talldayo]

It's time to double down and hope Russia gives up Crimea like they just abandoned Syria. Even Donald Trump is not stupid enough to miss an opportunity to play his enemies against one another.

[mahirsaid]

This is the result of allies helping Ukraine I don’t think they have any interest in Ukraine, but the alternative is Russia seizing Ukraine. This would have been possible 6 months after the war started. Remember that more than half of Ukrainians are not technically supporting zelensky. This conflict like many others is over complicated yet it's simplified in the west.

[scott_w]

> Remember that more than half of Ukrainians are not technically supporting zelensky.

This is normal in any political system, even during times of war. The UK during WWII still had many Labour MPs, meaning a significant portion of the British electorate did NOT support Churchill by definition. However, most people were united in their opposition to the Nazis.

That didn’t stop them voting out Churchill the first chance they got once the war was over.

I don’t think anyone is seriously naive enough to think the entirety of Ukraine loves Zelenskyy without reservation, however its clear that the Ukrainian people have no desire to let the Russians expand their campaign of torture, rape and murder throughout the country.

[mongol]

What do you mean with not technically supporting Zelensky? Do they not want to resist Russia like he does? Or do they prefer someone else to do it instead?

[tim333]

The Ukrainian "Losses of the Russian military" figures are quite impressive. Currently showing 750,000 personnel, 9500 tanks, 21000 artillery systems. Obviously the numbers are something of a guess but it's a lot. A recent update: https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/1h9c3dt/losses_of_...

[EasyMark]

I really have hopes that they can reach a ceasefire and that Ukraine can come into NATO to prevent further Russian aggression. Ideally let those Ukrainians who want to enter the “new” Ukraine. I think Putin is of the mind that he has to win something or his role as Russian dictator has a very short life expectancy, and he is quite desperate. I don’t think he will give up any of the land that Russia has acquired though.