[postingawayonhn]

> it means Ukraine has a real fighting chance to put them on their knees.

Yes, and this point has been obvious to many for the last two years.

The problem has been the west drip feeding aid into the largest war since WW2. We actually have to define the objective as reclaiming all Ukranian territory (at least to the pre-2022 borders) and supply them appropriately. It might be expensive in the short-term but we can afford it, can seize the $300B of Russian assets, and will be able to reduce our defensive forces in the future use to the reduced Russian threat.

The problem now is that we may have run out of time with Ukraine experiencing significant manpower issues. They could mobilise a lot more people, but that will mean women and younger men (currently only 25+) from a generation that is already very thin.

We can ask Ukraine to do this, but we they will need an ironclad commitment that we will supply them with everything they ask for.

[fooker]

The purpose of the drip feeding is, unfortunately, to get Russia closer to a total collapse rather than a quick loss for them to retreat and build up their strength again for the next 20ish years to repeat it.

It’s not ideal for Ukraine right now.

[postingawayonhn]

I have heard this argument before, but I'm not particularly convinced.

Either way pretty much all their pre-war modern equipment has already been destroyed. Now they're fighting with really old stuff like T-55s pulled from storage, newly manufactured equipment, or whatever North Korea thinks it can spare.

[brabel]

Your impression of Russia's war capabilities is vastly mistaken.

"According to Joseph Fitsanakis, professor of intelligence and security studies at Coastal Carolina University, “Russian military production is currently outpacing that of the US and all of NATO member states combined. This may be hard to believe, but Russia is obligated to do it if it is going to outpace the support given to Ukraine."

Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/2/russia-races-ahead-...

[fardo]

It shouldn’t be surprising that a country with a war economy has a higher first derivative at producing material, the question of import is

1. What is the difference between absolute quantities comparing against all relevant players,

2. How long would it take to bridge the gap at current production rates, and

3. Can that rate of production be sustained long enough for it to alter any fundamentals?

The point to rebut isn’t that Russia is making more, it’s whether they can continue to do so ongoingly before Ukrainian advances, regime falter or economic collapse, US/China step-in, or internal unrest will dramatically weaken or make the current Russian negotiating position untenable.

[Etherlord87]

Love the "first derivative" view! One can take a snapshot of a good day, but if russia really was producing more weapons than USA + NATO for a prolonged time, having also more people, Ukraine would fall a long time ago.

It didn't. As we say in Poland "paper will accept everything". And russia is known for shameless propaganda.

[xg15]

So far, Russia is still making gains on the battlefield though, not Ukraine. At some point, that momentum would have to reverse.

Also, I don't think it's an "until" about China stepping in, they seem to be squarely on Russia's side, just presenting themselves slightly more moderate in public to appear suitable as a mediator. (Maybe sort of like the US does with Israel)

Finally, there is BRICS and some massive shifts of attitude in Africa that seem to work in Russia's favor.

[programjames]

Do Americans have the technical expertise for a higher curvature? The American primary/secondary schooling system sucks, and most of the top STEM students at university are not interested in working for the military.

[wiseowise]

All of this is irrelevant if Ukraine crumbles first.

[TheAlchemist]

Same goes for Russia, and is all seems pretty relevant.

The article seem to indicate that it's much more sustainable for the West than for Russia.

[sincerecook]

Ongoingly is not a word.

[tim333]

OED has it https://www.oed.com/dictionary/ongoingly_adv?tl=true

[KptMarchewa]

Their "production" includes restoring stuff from the soviet equipment bases. When they make stuff from scratch, they are as much drip-feeding as west is, or even less - for example they make 6-8 Su-34s a year, while Lockmart is making 156 F-35s a year.

[postingawayonhn]

I partly agree, in that by drip feeding Ukraine supplies we have given Russia time to build up their production rates. And my earlier comment was disputing the idea that drip feeing the supplies was some kind of intentional strategy.

With regards to the broader claim that Russian production is outpacing that of the west. Yes, with artillery shells that's probably true, though we are continuing to ramp production. There aren't really any other areas though where a combination of western production + stock drawdowns couldn't supply Ukraine with greater quantities of material.

[fooker]

They have destroyed the rest of their industrial capacity and economy in the process, an outcome very much desired by US and friends.

[cutemonster]

Russia isn't that interesting any longer, economy wise.

China is the competitor to the US nowadays. All Russia has is nukes and troll farms, and corruption.

[aguaviva]

It seems that something like "they've trashed their economy" would have been a better choice of words.

But -- "destroyed"? What's that supposed to mean? What purpose is served by the use of such hyperbolic language?

[tim333]

I don't think US and friends would have any problem with them having a successful economy if they didn't use it to attack and threaten other countries.

[fooker]

Yes. Given their fall in Syria one might assume they are getting close to a breaking point. But it’s difficult to know for sure as they lie at every step of the process, even to themselves.

[hollerith]

Assad's fall doesn't signify much because we should expect Moscow to prioritize its own backyard.

[philistine]

Syria is Russia's backyard! It is not culturally close like Ukraine, but Syria has been an ally of the Soviet Union and Russia for decades through the Assad family.

Nevertheless, Russia clearly chose to stop their support; the Assad regime was cooked.

[mahirsaid]

Things are not based on history anymore. It atleast as much as we might think. Russia just took a trip to Afghanistan to try build relations and encoporate a way to utilize Afghanistan. Historically this would make no sense since they have a bad history between each other out of all the countries in the region Afghanistan was the own Russia couldn't possess or influence in the past. That being said Russian lost many battles against Afghanistan against the very same government today "taliban".

[hollerith]

>Syria has been an ally of the Soviet Union and Russia for decades through the Assad family

I realize that and I realize that this outcome is bad for Moscow, but the Nazis (and others, e.g., the Turks) went through Ukraine to invade Russia whereas no one has ever gone through Syria to get at Russia, so I would expect Moscow to care less about whether the government of Syria is aligned with Moscow than whether the government of Ukraine is aligned with Moscow.

[Gud]

This is giving too much credit to the competence of the same political leadership that has spent the last 30 years dismantling the European war machine(that was pretty solid up until the mid 90s) while Russia and China has been arming themselves to the teeth.

[jakjak123]

I concur, the slow drip feeding is adequately explained by coming from a place of war ineptitude and domestic priorities rather than a conscious strategy.

[Etherlord87]

I agree with this. russia is being lured into continued commitment by giving it a chance. I'm unusually impressed with how American intelligence played russia in this conflict. Of course there's another reason: russia is a nuclear power, and even though everyone seems used to its threats and makes nothing of it, a nuclear war is an absolutely terrible threat, possibly wiping entire humanity if it fails to endure nuclear winter. As a result, America/NATO is doing a dance, where it waits for russia to do something morally wrong, then respond to it with escalation, ready to criticize and sanction on moral grounds all russia's allies if they decide to respond with (political) support to russia. We're quite successful in my opinion, the escalation of the west is validated throughout the world, and the response to it on the russia's side wouldn't be, and would result in stronger sanctions.

Had all the escalations of the recent 2 years be condensed to the first month of war, BRICS (and not only, e.g. the pope was quite supportive of russia, not sure if he still is) could unite and coordinate a response, and the west could possibly lose the war in the political sense, kind of like Israel lost it. I'm not putting an equal sign between Israel and Ukraine, but who would predict a few years ago common harsh criticisms against Israel in mainstream TV?

[tim333]

Israel and Ukraine are rather different in that it is hard to have much sympathy for Russia as they are the ones who chose to invade and they could go home any time they get fed up. The palestinians don't have that option.

Personally I think the west should have been firmer early on that the Russian invasion was unacceptable and they should go or be forced out. Instead they were kind of wishy washy.

[refulgentis]

> The purpose of the drip feeding is, unfortunately,

Absolutely not, it's not intentional.

- Suddenly, the world defense base needed to get on up to a level to match the world's 5th largest army, with all its stockpiles -- regardless of if its just lil ol Ukraine, Russia is putting its full effort in.

- Politics in US delayed it several months, I can't recall the exact number, but it was at least 6.

[fooker]

The war has been going on for a bit more than a thousand days now.

Your points would have been valid maybe one year into the war. Unless you’re suggesting the US military industrial complex takes three years to respond.

[walterlw]

Quick reminder that Russia first invaded Ukraine in 2014, before that they invaded Georgia and before that they took Chechnia. And yet even now the popular belief in the West is that the war in Ukraine will be the end of it and that some sort of a peace deal can hold.

[lolinder]

Thank you. It has been incredibly frustrating to watch the modern appeasement movement repeat the mistakes of the 1930s.

You cannot appease an expansionist power that's intent on restoring the glory of an empire from days gone by (real or imagined).

[mensetmanusman]

Few believe Russia would risk expansion into nato territory.

[sabbaticaldev]

world defense base? Like the baseball World series?

[thunky]

> We can ask Ukraine to do this, but we they will need an ironclad commitment that we will supply them with everything they ask for

Sounds like a good way to escalate the war.

[programjames]

Something I've always been confused about is where are these Russian assets to seize? Are there just yachts sitting off the coast of Ukraine? Russian investments in businesses? Or, would it come after a peace deal where the Russian government pays reparations for the war?

[philwelch]

Is Ukraine actually the largest war since WW2? Is it bigger than the Second Congo War?

[stogot]

In terms of manpower, weapon types, domains of warfare, quantity of equipment, global impact, and national security implications-Ukraine is the largest.

In total violent deaths, 2nd Congo is worse. Let’s hope the war ends before that happens again

[theGnuMe]

Ukraine is out of time because Trump was re-elected. Only Europe can save them now and that will put Europe at odds with Putin/Trump.

[netsharc]

But Trump winning means Zelenskyy can scale down his ambitions (about reclaiming all of Ukranian territory) and not lose face, "well, the #####s reelected that Putin-fan in USA, so this is the best we can get now.", and conveniently for Putin it's also a way to get out of the expected walk into the Kyiv-Park that turned out into 3 years of quagmire: he can say "The goal all along was to secure Crimea and access to the Black Sea, get out the миссия выполнена banner!".