[wslh]

I'd like to share a personal perspective/rant on AI that might resonate with others: like many, I'm incredibly excited about this AI moment. The urge to dive headfirst into the field and contribute is natural after all, it's the frontier of innovation right now.

But I think this moment mirrors financial markets during times of frenzy. When markets are volatile, one common piece of advice is to “wait and see”. Similarly, in AI, so many brilliant minds and organizations are racing to create groundbreaking innovations. Often, what you're envisioning as your next big project might already be happening, or will soon be, somewhere else in the world.

Adopting a “wait and see” strategy could be surprisingly effective. Instead of rushing in, let the dust settle, observe trends, and focus on leveraging what emerges. In a way, the entire AI ecosystem is working for you: building the foundations for your next big idea.

That said, this doesn't mean you can't integrate the state of the art into your own (working) products and services.

[whiplash451]

Your proposal makes a lot of sense. I assume a number of companies are integrating sota models into their products.

That being said, there is no free lunch: when you're doing this, you're more reactive than proactive. You minimize risk, but you also lose any change to have a stake [1] in the few survivors that will remain and be extremely valuable.

Do this long enough and you'll have no idea what people are talking about in the field. Watch the latest Dwarkesh Patel episode to get a sense of what I am talking about.

[1] stake to be understood broadly as: shares in a company, knowledge as an AI researcher, etc.

[wslh]

Thank you for your thoughtful response! I completely agree that there's a tradeoff between being proactive and reactive in this kind of strategy: minimizing risk by waiting can mean missing out on opportunities to gain a broader "stake".

That said, my perspective focuses more on strategic timing rather than complete passivity. It's about being engaged with understanding trends, staying informed, and preparing to act decisively when the right opportunity emerges. It's less about "waiting on the sidelines" and more about deliberate pacing, recognizing that it’s not always necessary to be at the bleeding edge to create value.

I'll definitely check out Dwarkesh Patel’s latest episode. I assume it is the Gwern one, right? Thanks!