[bobsondugnut]

> ChatGPT is neat. For all we know we’re near a local maxima of what we’re capable of achieving without another completely new approach that will take 10 or 15 years to figure out. There’s no proof that the acceleration and capabilities we’ve seen over the last 2 to 3 years will continue like that.

Two issues here:

1) we are only about ~10 years into the deep learning boom

2) we've seen deep learning scale with compute over this 10 years, not only over the last 2-3 years.

It could be we've reached the end of the road for NLP, no one really knows. But generally we see breakthroughs in lockstep with big jumps in compute capability (typically, GPU releases, occasionally with architecture changes).

[tim333]

>... local maxima ... new approach that will take 10 or 15 years ...

I was listening to the recent interviews with Sam Altman and the Anthropic guy who are familiar with current research and they are very not like that. It's more wow we've got so much to build, AGI in a couple of years. (For it seems to me a rather limited version of AGI - more can code well rather than can fix your plumbing.)

[peppery-idiot]

Their future success is heavily tied to that set of opinions being correct and drumming up further investment. Even with the best will in the world, this type of quantitative opinion will be hugely positively biased.

They are CEOs, half the job is public cheerleading.

[red-iron-pine]

> AGI in a couple of years.

this will be the new "fusion in 10 years", but with the added downside of expending a small-country's worth of carbon per day while not actually getting us there.

like, of course sam altman is going to talk about how close they are and how they need more money.

[MBCook]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-13/openai-go...

Yeah, we don’t know for sure. But it seems like there are signs the easy gains may be over.