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by tim333 588 days ago
>... local maxima ... new approach that will take 10 or 15 years ...

I was listening to the recent interviews with Sam Altman and the Anthropic guy who are familiar with current research and they are very not like that. It's more wow we've got so much to build, AGI in a couple of years. (For it seems to me a rather limited version of AGI - more can code well rather than can fix your plumbing.)
2 comments
peppery-idiot 588 days ago
Their future success is heavily tied to that set of opinions being correct and drumming up further investment. Even with the best will in the world, this type of quantitative opinion will be hugely positively biased.

They are CEOs, half the job is public cheerleading.

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red-iron-pine 588 days ago
> AGI in a couple of years.

this will be the new "fusion in 10 years", but with the added downside of expending a small-country's worth of carbon per day while not actually getting us there.

like, of course sam altman is going to talk about how close they are and how they need more money.

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