[angoragoats]

Not sure what you mean. Job growth is continually rising, and unemployment continues to remain at historic lows (where it has been since 2021-ish). [0]

The job market is doing just fine, unless you’re in very specific areas such as the automotive industry or certain types of manufacturing.

[0] https://www.npr.org/2024/10/04/nx-s1-5140039/labor-market-jo...

[johnnyanmac]

These charts use "employment" in a very pedantic way. They don't look much at underemployment nor the shifts in proportions of salary ranges.

I believe they also count gigs. So I could run Doordash for under minimum and be "employed" technically.

The other dangerous thing is "averages". This is one of the special cases where you need to look at the lower quartiles. The average/median can look great, but if we have an entire quartile unable to pay rent we'd be in trouble as a whole.

[angoragoats]

To be clear, I was only responding to your first statement about “how bad the job market's been.”

You can click through to the BLS survey to read more about their methodology, but the job growth number of +254k jobs in September only includes payroll employees. And reading the report would tell you that they do, in fact, track underemployment (people who worked part time but would have preferred full time employment). And neither job growth nor the unemployment rate has anything to do with “averages.”

Can you provide any data to refute the numbers I shared? Because again, the job market is looking pretty good to me.

[pooper]

> Can you provide any data to refute the numbers I shared? Because again, the job market is looking pretty good to me.

This is why everyone hates economists. They have zero insight into how lives are for ordinary people. I applied for a job at grocery stores and fast food restaurants. I did not get ONE call back from any of these places.

Also another thing -- they keep saying rate of inflation is now under control. Well guess what, the prices went up and have not come down. Wages did not keep pace with the high rate of inflation so unless you can have negative inflation somehow, there is still constant pain every day, every month. I mean it is so obvious and yet economists chase spherical cows...

[angoragoats]

> This is why everyone hates economists. They have zero insight into how lives are for ordinary people. I applied for a job at grocery stores and fast food restaurants. I did not get ONE call back from any of these places.

I understand your frustration with your personal situation, but at least regarding unemployment, how else would you propose we measure it? Unless there's some flaw with the methodology or the data that was collected, your situation is very clearly not the norm. Until we identify any possible problems with the measuring process, the number that's released is the best view we have of the employment situation nationwide. Are you saying that "ordinary people" are somehow excluded from the data? Or what?

> Also another thing -- they keep saying rate of inflation is now under control. Well guess what, the prices went up and have not come down. Wages did not keep pace with the high rate of inflation so unless you can have negative inflation somehow, there is still constant pain every day, every month. I mean it is so obvious and yet economists chase spherical cows...

The rate of inflation is under control, and I realize you might know better and are just speaking for "the average person," but comments like this reflect a gross misunderstanding of the concept of inflation. This is a perfect reason why education is so important to an informed and effective electorate.

BTW, you can, in fact, have negative inflation, and it is widely considered to be bad, for a multitude of reasons. [0]

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deflation

[pooper]

Sorry, yes, I meant somehow have negative inflation without the terrible consequences (iirc Japan had it at slightly above zero for a decade and that was bad enough, can't imagine actually negative numbers enough to reverse the inflation since 2020).

> The rate of inflation is under control

Stop saying that because that message is clearly not resonating with people. They don't understand and they don't want to understand. Don't shoot the messenger here but this is a spherical cow. It doesn't matter that a car that has you pinned against a wall is no longer accelerating but it is merely attempting to crush you at a steady, cruising speed.

Yes, this was a big achievement and clearly we failed to communicate this message because the next question is ok great but how do I stretch my paycheck to meet my expenses.

And that goes back to the original problem -- there are fewer jobs than there were before. I have ZERO data to back this up but just my own personal anecdotes but it feels like at least for web developers that companies are laying off people AND hiring people back at lower wages. If they are not actively laying off, they are taking any excuse they can get to end a contract or "return to office" to force people to quit and come back at a lower salary.

[angoragoats]

> Stop saying that because that message is clearly not resonating with people

I’m not a politician running for office, so fortunately I don’t have to make it resonate with people. I will continue to say it because it’s true.

> And that goes back to the original problem -- there are fewer jobs than there were before. I have ZERO data to back this up but just my own personal anecdotes but it feels like at least for web developers that companies are laying off people AND hiring people back at lower wages.

I prefer to believe things that are based on data and evidence rather than feelings, even if it goes against whatever preconceived notions I may have.

Here’s an anecdote for you: I’m a developer and found a new job about 2 years ago, after the big tech layoffs started happening, and went from starting my search to offer signed in about 5 weeks, give or take. I still work for this same company and since the whole company is fully remote, there are going to be no RTO mandates, ever. I make more money than I have at any previous job in my prior 20 years in the profession. I have several close friends in similar positions as me. The job market is doing great!

What do we do now?