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by thayne 600 days ago
Do sanctions ever actually work as intended?

To this casual bystander it seems like they usually hurt innocent citizens far more than the leaders of the usually authoritarion regime that it targets.

2 comments

>To this casual bystander it seems like they usually hurt innocent citizens far more than the leaders of the usually authoritarion regime that it targets.

That's kinda the point. The common folk put pressure on their leaders to correct their behavior.

"Here, we'll hurt you so you'll go fight the guy who claims he's the only one protecting you from us."

Has that strategy ever worked?

South Africa? Rhodesia?

But sure.. usually it doesn't really work out.

Of course weakening the target country economically, politically and militarily is still better than nothing,

Russians had every opportunity to kick out nuclear gnome before sanctions kicked in, but alas.
western people had plenty of time to stop buying russian oil after the Crimea was stolen in 2014, but alas, they wanted to sponsor russian military and police so badly
That assumes the common folk can put pressure on their leaders, which is usually not the case for countries targeted by sanctions from the US, which usually have autocratic or otherwise authoritarian governments.
History is full of violent revolutions against autocratic governments. We should inflict maximum pain on the Russian populace. Be as cruel as possible. Keep the pressure on. Eventually it might pay off. And even if it doesn't work, it serves as an object lesson to other countries on the consequences of opposing US policies.
So, what you want is essentially pushing a whole country's population around for your own amusement? Very motivating, not gonna lie!
Amusement has nothing to do with it. This is one method among many for pursuing national geopolitical goals. It's a shame that the Russian populace has to suffer, I bear them no ill will. But if they ever want to get out of international sanctions then they know what they need to do.
Like it or not, the leader derives his power from the populace. An autocrat is powerless without people going along.
Buy a ticket to Ukraine right about now and ask Ukrainians how amused are they. And don’t forget to visit every country that had to take millions of refugees.
> innocent citizens

Do you not think that at least 50% of all people in Russia would vote for Putin or his affiliates (even if the elections weren't falsified)? Therefore most people in Russia are certainly not innocent.

> most people in Russia are certainly not innocent.

Nor are Americans, by this standard - what we've done directly in Syria & Iraq is quite bad and enjoyed substantial popular support.

Perhaps. However on the whole not particularly worse what the local governments were already doing there (more so in Iraq, though)
We don't know and can't know that, there hasn't been a single election without major falsifications since about 2004. I personally don't know anyone who voted for him, but I don't keep many ties to the "lowest classes". If your image of the Russian society is based solely on US left-wing media, then it has even less resemblance to reality.
> We don't know and can't know that, there hasn't been a single election without major falsifications since about 2004.

We can and know that. Just talk with your fellow Russians.

Even (pseudo)opposition polls generally show that most people support Putin? Yes I understand that polls in such a society might not be particularly meaningful. But I'm not even saying that most Russians actively support the government, implicit support (i.e. being unwilling to risk anything to change the status quo) is almost as good.

> "lowest classes"

I find it hard to believe that there aren't plenty of people who are middle class and above who support the regime. After all Russia's economy is almost entirely based on raw resources extraction and (now) military related industries.

> If your image of the Russian society is based solely on US left-wing media

And yours is based on Kremlin propaganda channels and media sources? See what I did there? Both assumptions are equally valid/invalid and neither contributes anything to a meaningful discussion besides immediately shutting down the possibility of one existing.