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by Chathamization 630 days ago
The AI doomsday folk had an even worse track record over the past decade. There was supposed to be mass unemployment of truck drivers years ago. According to CCP Grey's Human's Need Not Apply[1] from 10 years ago, the robot Baxter was supposed to take over many low skilled jobs (Baxter was continued in 2018 after it failed to achieve commercial success).

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU
2 comments
fennecfoxy 627 days ago
Tbf there's the human element - we have had the technology to automate train systems for decades now and yet most train systems aren't automated - because then the drivers would lose their jobs. There's more to things like this than just "do we have the technology"
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whimsicalism 630 days ago
I do not count CGP grey or other viral youtubers among the segment of people I was counting as bullish about the scaling hypothesis. I’m talking about actual academics like Ilya, Hinton, etc.

Regardless, I just read the transcript for that video and he doesn’t give any timeline so it seems premature to crow that he was wrong.

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Chathamization 630 days ago
> Regardless, I just read the transcript for that video and he doesn’t give any timeline so it seems premature to crow that he was wrong.

If you watch the video he's clearly saying this was was something that was already happening. Keep in mind it was made 10 years ago, and in it he says "this isn't science fiction; the robots are here right now." When bringing up the 25% unemployment rate he says "just the stuff we talked about today, the stuff that already works, can push us over that number pretty soon."

Baxter being able to do everything a worker can for a fraction of the price definitely wasn't true.

Here's what he said about self-driving cars. Again, this was 2014: "Self driving cars aren't the future - they're here and they work."

"The transportation industry in the united states employs about 3 million people. Extrapolating worldwide, that's something like 70 million jobs at a minimum. These jobs are over."

> I’m talking about actual academics like Ilya, Hinton, etc.

Which of Hinton's statements are you claiming were dismissed by people here but were later proven to be correct?

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